# How Accurate Are Election Pundits? 2024 by the Numbers

Figures as of 2026-10-06; they move as results are certified and graded.

## How accurate were pundits' 2024 election predictions?

Pundits' checkable 2024 election calls averaged 77.5% accuracy across 580 graded calls from 96 pundits, each scored against the certified result.

## Did pundits beat a naive guess?

Yes, by 43.1 points: in 2024 a naive guess — that the party holding each seat keeps it — would have scored 34.4% on the same calls, against the pundits' 77.5%.

## Which election calls do pundits get right?

A hit is a call that scored 80 or better.

| Kind of call | Graded | Hit rate | Accuracy | Naive guess |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Race Winners | 462 | 76.6% | 76.6% | 32.5% |
| Chamber Control | 53 | 79.2% | 79.2% | 30.2% |
| Race Margins | 43 | 62.8% | 81.4% | 53.5% |
| Seat Counts | 21 | 81.0% | 85.7% | 46.7% |
| House Popular Vote Margins | 1 | 0.0% | 44.5% | 98.3% |

## Where did most pundits get the 2024 elections wrong?

| Race or chamber | Winner | Picked the winner | Share |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| [Control of the House](https://missedtakes.co/elections?cycle=2024) | Republican | 4 of 14 | 28.6% |
| [2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-president-mi) | Donald Trump | 5 of 14 | 35.7% |
| [2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-president-wi) | Donald Trump | 4 of 13 | 30.8% |
| [2024 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-senate-wi) | Tammy Baldwin | 3 of 7 | 42.9% |
| [2024 U.S. Senate election in Michigan](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-senate-mi) | Elissa Slotkin | 1 of 3 | 33.3% |
| [2024 U.S. House election in Nebraska's district 2](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-house-ne-02) | Don Bacon | 0 of 3 | 0.0% |

## Where did most pundits get it right?

| Race or chamber | Winner | Picked the winner | Share |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| [2024 U.S. presidential election](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-president) | Donald Trump | 34 of 57 | 59.6% |
| [Control of the Senate](https://missedtakes.co/elections?cycle=2024) | Republican | 30 of 30 | 100.0% |
| [2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-president-pa) | Donald Trump | 11 of 20 | 55.0% |
| [2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-president-az) | Donald Trump | 16 of 17 | 94.1% |
| [2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-president-nv) | Donald Trump | 12 of 17 | 70.6% |
| [2024 U.S. presidential election in North Carolina](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-president-nc) | Donald Trump | 16 of 17 | 94.1% |
| [2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-president-ga) | Donald Trump | 15 of 16 | 93.8% |
| [2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-senate-wv) | Jim Justice | 10 of 10 | 100.0% |
| [2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-senate-mt) | Tim Sheehy | 10 of 10 | 100.0% |
| [2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-senate-pa) | Dave McCormick | 6 of 9 | 66.7% |
| [2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-senate-tx) | Ted Cruz | 8 of 9 | 88.9% |
| [2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2024-president-tx) | Donald Trump | 6 of 7 | 85.7% |

## Who is the most accurate election pundit?

Ranked by MissedTakes Score across every cycle graded, not 2024 alone; ten or more graded articles to be ranked. Full list: https://missedtakes.co/elections/leaderboard

1. [Clay Travis](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/clay-travis) — score 74.2, accuracy 98.3%, 27 graded
2. [Erick-Woods Erickson](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/erick-woods-erickson) — score 70.3, accuracy 95.9%, 29 graded

## Cite these numbers

MissedTakes, "How Accurate Are Election Pundits? 2024 by the Numbers", missedtakes.co/elections/accuracy?cycle=2024, accessed 2026-10-06.

CSV: https://missedtakes.co/elections/accuracy.csv?cycle=2024 · Methodology: https://missedtakes.co/methodology