# Who called the 2026 elections

Every checkable call named pundits made about the 2026 US elections, graded against certified results with a naive baseline beside each one. 266 claims on the record from 51 pundits; 0 graded.

## The races

- **Governors:** 36 races, 18 with claims, 0 with results
- **House:** 435 races, 33 with claims, 0 with results
- **Senate:** 35 races, 15 with claims, 0 with results

## Congress

- **House**: 
- **Senate**: 

## What gets graded

- **Chamber Control** (45 claims): A call on which party controls the Senate or the House after an election. Graded right or wrong once control is settled.
- **House Popular Vote Margins** (4 claims): How much a party wins or loses the national popular vote for the House by: the votes of every House race added up. Graded on the distance from the certified national margin.
- **Race Margins** (2 claims): How much a candidate wins or loses by: the margin or vote share in one race, or electoral votes for the presidency. Graded on the distance from the certified result.
- **Race Winners** (182 claims): A call on who wins one race: a Senate or House seat, a governorship, or the presidency, nationally or in one state. Graded right or wrong against the certified winner.
- **Seat Counts** (32 claims): How many seats a party ends up holding in the Senate or the House, or how many it gains or loses. Graded on the distance from the certified count.
- **Seats Most Likely to Flip** (1 claims): A pundit's ordered list of the seats most likely to change party. Graded against which of them actually flipped and by how much.

## Most called races

- [2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2026-senate-tx) — 17 claims
- [2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2026-senate-mi) — 14 claims
- [2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2026-senate-ga) — 13 claims
- [2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2026-senate-nc) — 12 claims
- [2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2026-senate-ia) — 8 claims
- [2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2026-senate-oh-special) — 7 claims
- [2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2026-senate-ak) — 6 claims
- [2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2026-senate-nh) — 6 claims
- [2026 Iowa gubernatorial election](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2026-governor-ia) — 5 claims
- [2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2026-senate-ks) — 5 claims
- [2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2026-senate-me) — 5 claims
- [2026 Texas gubernatorial election](https://missedtakes.co/elections/races/2026-governor-tx) — 4 claims

Results come from certified public sources — the Federal Election Commission's compilations, the Clerk of the House's certified statistics and state canvasses — never from a prediction market or a poll. The arithmetic is in the [methodology](https://missedtakes.co/methodology).