# 2024 U.S. House election in California's district 45 — what pundits predicted

House · Election Day 2024-11-05 · certified.

## The ballot

- **Derek Tran (Democratic) — won** · 50.1%
- Michelle Steel (Republican) · 49.9%

Result: Derek Tran by 0.2 points (general); held by the Republican party going in; flipped. Source: wikipedia-2024-house.

## What the field called

- Derek Tran: 1 pick (won)
- Michelle Steel: 1 pick (lost)

## Every claim about this race (2)

- **Lakshya Jain** — Michelle Steel wins CA-45 House seat (2024) — “just a 51% chance of winning” (Race Winners, Oct 19, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/330fca28-b27b-4ebc-b81e-ab4c1f0d9169)
- **Lakshya Jain** — Derek Tran wins CA-45 House seat (2024) — “a 51% chance” (Race Winners, Oct 5, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5ca6bf1a-277c-439c-a100-dcae599b7250)