# 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona — what pundits predicted

Presidency · Election Day 2024-11-05 · certified.

## The ballot

- **Donald Trump (Republican) — won** · 52.2% · 11 electoral votes
- Kamala Harris (Democratic) · 46.7%
- Jill Stein (Green) · 0.5%
- Chase Oliver (Libertarian) · 0.5%

Result: Donald Trump by 5.5 points (general); held by the Democratic party going in; flipped. Source: fec-2024-president.

## What the field called

- Donald Trump: 18 picks (won)
- Kamala Harris: 1 pick (lost)

## Every claim about this race (20)

- **David Frum** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d801b47f-11b1-4078-a15e-6a8670c71670)
- **Robby Soave** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/51b2250d-7167-4f78-987c-b410831699d8)
- **Ben Shapiro** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/41065840-38b7-4207-b0de-b7ebb6151443)
- **Seth Keshel** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f667ed22-d09d-4ebd-a7db-acbe426c36bb)
- **Nate Silver** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “the safest bet for Trump” (Race Winners, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e9cc0688-12c5-4cde-95ee-5591d717960d)
- **Saagar Enjeti** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/bb989d94-53f2-4927-816b-85a994fc98b4)
- **Krystal Ball** — Kamala Harris wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dcc4d72f-d3a8-46e2-8152-5630053196f9)
- **Sean Spicer** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “I feel bullish” (Race Winners, Nov 3, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/04bf47f5-382a-4338-8255-e7f6fbf3fe68)
- **Clay Travis** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 2, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b52a600f-eb6e-4089-9800-a16771f4af93)
- **Harrison Lavelle** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “Leans Republican” (Race Winners, Nov 1, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/48d2ce98-1022-46fd-b76c-727b908c54bb)
- **Daniel Horowitz** — an unnamed party wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 1, 2024) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c587c5d9-5cd7-4f69-b12f-f9a0c678a913)
- **Steve Deace** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 1, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/227fccef-c6ae-4b9b-a30d-4eb9c2431b39)
- **Ben Shapiro** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “The most likely scenario right now” (Race Winners, Nov 1, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/443d38b4-c8a0-43ea-b216-25c3b9a96836)
- **Megyn Kelly** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “definitely leaning Trump” (Race Winners, Oct 31, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2eee3e90-e770-43d8-a861-2de5de69252b)
- **Ben Shapiro** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “likely carries it over the finish line” (Race Winners, Oct 31, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/21dc75fb-904c-4382-abd2-82e318d037e2)
- **Lakshya Jain** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “a slight edge” (Race Winners, Oct 26, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/aa2e619b-e345-474e-8e76-8853e0ad14f4)
- **Bill Scher** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Oct 25, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4029b386-4347-4985-a8ea-649dbdce602b)
- **Scott Rasmussen** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “he should feel pretty good about Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina” (Race Winners, Oct 24, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/45c72b0c-189b-4348-967f-4b8330cca5e0)
- **Brent Buchanan** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Oct 23, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8a1f4bf9-1d65-4825-a99a-78ab20cf0a07)
- **David Pakman** — Donald Trump wins AZ's presidential vote (2024) — “Likely” (Race Winners, Oct 22, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3ef0c251-9e50-4138-a342-5e585567ff3b)