# 2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa — what pundits predicted

Presidency · Election Day 2024-11-05 · certified.

## The ballot

- **Donald Trump (Republican) — won** · 55.7% · 6 electoral votes
- Kamala Harris (Democratic) · 42.5%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Independent) · 0.8%
- Chase Oliver (Libertarian) · 0.4%

Result: Donald Trump by 13.2 points (general); held by the Republican party going in. Source: fec-2024-president.

## What the field called

- Donald Trump: 6 picks (won)

## Every claim about this race (8)

- **Sam Wang** — Donald Trump: a margin of +12 points in IA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Margins, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 87.9 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0)
- **Tom Bevan** — Donald Trump wins IA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/81673a28-87bf-4e57-ba9f-a82a117e73d1)
- **Sean Trende** — Donald Trump wins IA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e354f588-f8ce-4a9d-b563-56837b85215f)
- **Robby Soave** — Donald Trump wins IA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cbb963fc-82c1-4447-ba8d-20e5f319864b)
- **Bob Vander Plaats** — Donald Trump: somewhere between five and eight or eight and ten points in IA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Margins, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 47.9 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/472325ec-b86c-433a-b135-6134e4d70f47)
- **Logan Phillips** — Donald Trump wins IA's presidential vote (2024) — “Now I have it up to around twenty or you know, twenty five” (Race Winners, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/19ff7fa1-6b99-4879-b55c-c28cd02b83be)
- **Lakshya Jain** — Donald Trump wins IA's presidential vote (2024) — “Leans Republican in our forecast, with Trump being a 76% favorite” (Race Winners, Nov 2, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c4ad6403-c190-4f2f-ace0-a917ca86ca3f)
- **Max McCall** — Donald Trump wins IA's presidential vote (2024) — “Leans Republican in our forecast, with Trump being a 76% favorite” (Race Winners, Nov 2, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23fb5e13-9731-48ab-90e2-fc26577162e9)