# 2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania — what pundits predicted

Presidency · Election Day 2024-11-05 · certified.

## The ballot

- **Donald Trump (Republican) — won** · 50.2% · 19 electoral votes
- Kamala Harris (Democratic) · 48.5%
- Jill Stein (Green) · 0.5%
- Chase Oliver (Libertarian) · 0.5%

Result: Donald Trump by 1.7 points (general); held by the Democratic party going in; flipped. Source: fec-2024-president.

## What the field called

- Donald Trump: 14 picks (won)
- Kamala Harris: 14 picks (lost)

## Every claim about this race (28)

- **Tim Miller** — Kamala Harris wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5506a84f-61ca-4667-8670-a8fb3229ae2d)
- **Robby Soave** — Kamala Harris wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/51b2250d-7167-4f78-987c-b410831699d8)
- **Ben Shapiro** — Donald Trump wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/41065840-38b7-4207-b0de-b7ebb6151443)
- **Saagar Enjeti** — Donald Trump wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/61489914-d6fd-4a7d-bd9a-3659925654f5)
- **Seth Keshel** — Donald Trump wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f667ed22-d09d-4ebd-a7db-acbe426c36bb)
- **Lakshya Jain** — Kamala Harris wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5a57d1ed-c7db-49ba-b385-900b5d93d6c5)
- **Steve Bannon** — Donald Trump wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f645b783-648c-479c-88bf-adc2df4d7a1a)
- **Isaac Saul** — Kamala Harris wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9f0d868d-0cbe-4cd5-9ad2-059bd6ccb7a1)
- **Isaac Saul** — Kamala Harris wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/652fc278-a29c-4db4-a40d-ea6167503ea3)
- **Krystal Ball** — Kamala Harris wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dcc4d72f-d3a8-46e2-8152-5630053196f9)
- **Saagar Enjeti** — Donald Trump wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/bb989d94-53f2-4927-816b-85a994fc98b4)
- **Isaac Saul** — Kamala Harris wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 3, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0d01685b-46fd-4c8e-b897-d661b3ee0b28)
- **Spencer Kimball** — Donald Trump wins PA's presidential vote (2024) — “it looks like Pennsylvania should go towards Trump” (Race Winners, Nov 3, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/583de0e9-4851-4c45-8f80-efbc988f33e9)
- **Sean Spicer** — Donald Trump wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 3, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/04bf47f5-382a-4338-8255-e7f6fbf3fe68)
- **Newt Gingrich** — Donald Trump wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 3, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/528bbd7f-884c-4955-b6f6-81b1cbbf72a6)
- **Buck Sexton** — Donald Trump wins PA's presidential vote (2024) — “most likely I think to win Pennsylvania” (Race Winners, Nov 1, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/619b547c-5523-45c4-ab91-58e761dbf860)
- **Steve Deace** — Donald Trump wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 1, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/227fccef-c6ae-4b9b-a30d-4eb9c2431b39)
- **Isaac Saul** — Kamala Harris wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 1, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fae76e06-7347-4e3d-b978-448ce89230c0)
- **Emily Jashinsky** — Donald Trump wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 1, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a133fad0-e078-4436-9070-3fb57cede6a9)
- **Ryan Grim** — Kamala Harris wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 1, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/79e9ecc9-a660-43e9-bed3-3bf1a67921d8)
- **Spencer Kimball** — Donald Trump wins PA's presidential vote (2024) — “Pennsylvania as a toss-up, slightly leaning towards Trump” (Race Winners, Oct 31, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cb89ae96-e13d-4945-a01a-d5defaddc6ba)
- **Lakshya Jain** — Kamala Harris wins PA's presidential vote (2024) — “narrowly winning” (Race Winners, Oct 30, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/308da49d-b785-4223-92bc-513468257e86)
- **Selena Zito** — Donald Trump wins PA's presidential vote (2024) — “I would rather be Donald Trump in these closing days than I would be with, with Harris” (Race Winners, Oct 29, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7e1de903-aad9-4b6a-8a45-0db10bed0685)
- **Steve Deace** — Donald Trump wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Oct 29, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e92d1a64-147b-44d6-971c-aff6790f7d6f)
- **Lakshya Jain** — Kamala Harris wins PA's presidential vote (2024) — “the narrowest of favorites” (Race Winners, Oct 26, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/aa2e619b-e345-474e-8e76-8853e0ad14f4)
- **Bill Scher** — Kamala Harris wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Oct 25, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4029b386-4347-4985-a8ea-649dbdce602b)
- **Brent Buchanan** — Kamala Harris wins PA's presidential vote (2024) — “a slight edge” (Race Winners, Oct 23, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8a1f4bf9-1d65-4825-a99a-78ab20cf0a07)
- **David Pakman** — Kamala Harris wins PA's presidential vote (2024) (Race Winners, Oct 22, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3ef0c251-9e50-4138-a342-5e585567ff3b)