# 2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona — what pundits predicted

Senate · Election Day 2024-11-05 · certified.

## The ballot

- **Ruben Gallego (Democratic, incumbent) — won** · 50.1%
- Kari Lake (Republican) · 47.7%
- Eduardo Quintana (Green)

Result: Ruben Gallego by 2.4 points (general); held by the Independent party going in; flipped. Source: wikipedia-2024-senate.

## What the field called

- Ruben Gallego: 3 picks (won)
- Kari Lake: 2 picks (lost)

## Every claim about this race (6)

- **David Frum** — Ruben Gallego wins AZ Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d801b47f-11b1-4078-a15e-6a8670c71670)
- **Erick-Woods Erickson** — Kari Lake wins AZ Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2b8a0f54-ff84-4006-963c-d87a3a582528)
- **Newt Gingrich** — Kari Lake wins AZ Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1149fb80-4007-4d94-bce1-178c50480c0d)
- **Lakshya Jain** — Ruben Gallego wins AZ Senate (2024) — “Leans Democratic” (Race Winners, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5a57d1ed-c7db-49ba-b385-900b5d93d6c5)
- **David Pakman** — Ruben Gallego wins AZ Senate (2024) — “In all likelihood, Carrie Lake will be defeated once again” (Race Winners, Oct 29, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3a530696-c478-4064-9002-506b5184c8ec)
- **Erick-Woods Erickson** — Kari Lake: will get crushed in AZ Senate (2024) (Race Margins, Oct 23, 2024) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/21b73dab-8f6d-4ab2-8a02-ce3f47eddd69)