# 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana — what pundits predicted

Senate · Election Day 2024-11-05 · certified.

## The ballot

- **Tim Sheehy (Republican) — won** · 52.6%
- Jon Tester (Democratic, incumbent) · 45.5%
- Sid Daoud (Libertarian) · 1.2%
- Robert Barb (Green)

Result: Tim Sheehy by 7.1 points (general); held by the Democratic party going in; flipped. Source: wikipedia-2024-senate.

## What the field called

- Tim Sheehy: 12 picks (won)

## Every claim about this race (12)

- **Erick-Woods Erickson** — Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 6, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3)
- **Carl Cannon** — Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e547bc00-0a2f-4c5f-a4a1-00db57d1e7ca)
- **Lakshya Jain** — Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) — “Leans Republican” (Race Winners, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5a57d1ed-c7db-49ba-b385-900b5d93d6c5)
- **Ben Shapiro** — Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 2, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5767f355-55ea-4248-8259-a4c375632918)
- **Daniel Horowitz** — Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 1, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c587c5d9-5cd7-4f69-b12f-f9a0c678a913)
- **David Beard** — Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) — “it's not impossible, but I think nobody should be expecting it” (Race Winners, Nov 1, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/abc1a83c-85a9-403d-bf04-308e86e28faf)
- **Tim Miller** — Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Oct 28, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/79e8e343-06b5-4a36-b552-d78ce0986f9b)
- **Ben Shapiro** — Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) — “extremely optimistic about not just this race” (Race Winners, Oct 25, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7001a898-d21e-4fba-a90c-af3addc40995)
- **Bill Scher** — Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Oct 25, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4029b386-4347-4985-a8ea-649dbdce602b)
- **Megyn Kelly** — Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Oct 23, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4899c8da-dc3b-431b-8c63-8a9a07537e6e)
- **Daniel Horowitz** — Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Oct 23, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f5073950-8010-4a47-93b0-1aab0fcf1fb1)
- **Domenico Montanaro** — Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) — “favored to win” (Race Winners, Oct 22, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4bc06f52-ef67-4398-b9c5-29ca5b639bb0)