# 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania — what pundits predicted

Senate · Election Day 2024-11-05 · certified.

## The ballot

- **Dave McCormick (Republican) — won** · 48.8%
- Robert P. Casey Jr. (Democratic, incumbent) · 48.6%
- John C. Thomas (Libertarian) · 1.2%
- Leila Hazou (Green) · 1.0%
- Marty Selker (Constitution) · 0.3%

Result: Dave McCormick by 0.2 points (general); held by the Democratic party going in; flipped. Source: wikipedia-2024-senate.

## What the field called

- Dave McCormick: 8 picks (won)
- Robert P. Casey Jr.: 3 picks (lost)

## Every claim about this race (11)

- **Ben Shapiro** — Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/41065840-38b7-4207-b0de-b7ebb6151443)
- **Erick-Woods Erickson** — Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2b8a0f54-ff84-4006-963c-d87a3a582528)
- **Newt Gingrich** — Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 5, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1149fb80-4007-4d94-bce1-178c50480c0d)
- **Lakshya Jain** — Robert P. Casey Jr. wins PA Senate (2024) — “Leans Democratic” (Race Winners, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5a57d1ed-c7db-49ba-b385-900b5d93d6c5)
- **Logan Phillips** — Robert P. Casey Jr. wins PA Senate (2024) — “it's eighty percent for the Senate” (Race Winners, Nov 4, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/19ff7fa1-6b99-4879-b55c-c28cd02b83be)
- **Ben Shapiro** — Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 2, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5767f355-55ea-4248-8259-a4c375632918)
- **Steve Deace** — Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Nov 1, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/227fccef-c6ae-4b9b-a30d-4eb9c2431b39)
- **Nathan Gonzales** — Robert P. Casey Jr. wins PA Senate (2024) — “tilt Democratic” (Race Winners, Nov 1, 2024) — scored 0 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/948fc91a-5690-4ab6-9a67-69f6b0c6381a)
- **Steve Deace** — Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Oct 29, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e92d1a64-147b-44d6-971c-aff6790f7d6f)
- **Steve Deace Show** — Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Oct 29, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4c6b9d8b-fe17-4ec9-a91e-529556c5741f)
- **Sean Spicer** — Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024) (Race Winners, Oct 23, 2024) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/714ad230-6ec2-4ee5-904a-e3b906c62fee)