# 2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 5 — what pundits predicted

House · Election Day 2026-11-03 · called.

## The ballot

- Cooke Harvey (Independent)
- **John McGuire (Republican, incumbent) — won**
- Tom Perriello (Democratic)

Result: John McGuire by — (general); held by the Republican party going in. Source: wikipedia-2026.

## What the field called

- John McGuire: 3 picks (won)

## Every claim about this race (3)

- **Chuck Todd** — John McGuire wins VA-05 House seat (2026) — “probably stays Republican” (Race Winners, Oct 14, 2026) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f2f88311-68cc-4765-b2f3-b4e0274c0c6c)
- **Chuck Todd** — John McGuire wins VA-05 House seat (2026) (Race Winners, Oct 14, 2026) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d0080669-0afd-4918-9ba5-27c4c0ec5a14)
- **Kyle Kondik** — John McGuire wins VA-05 House seat (2026) — “Leans Republican” (Race Winners, Sep 29, 2026) — scored 100 · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/92dcd5d6-4371-41a9-a905-c58360bc550b)