# 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas — what pundits predicted

Senate · Election Day 2026-11-03 · no result loaded yet.

## The ballot

- James Talarico (Democratic)
- Ken Paxton (Republican)
- Ted Brown (Libertarian)

## What the field called

- James Talarico: 10 picks
- Ken Paxton: 6 picks

## Every claim about this race (16)

- **G. Elliott Morris** — James Talarico wins TX Senate (2026) — “somewhere between a sort of toss-up and a lean Democratic seat” (Race Winners, Oct 3, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/32d429d8-12f2-4bef-90ef-1086c72ed48e)
- **G. Elliott Morris** — James Talarico wins TX Senate (2026) — “somewhere between a sort of toss-up and a lean Democratic seat” (Race Winners, Oct 3, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4fb9c693-3630-4875-abcf-cef085b78c5c)
- **Lisa Boothe** — Ken Paxton wins TX Senate (2026) (Race Winners, Oct 1, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ec4090cb-87ad-4609-91ce-3cfdcceffd1d)
- **Robby Soave** — James Talarico wins TX Senate (2026) (Race Winners, Oct 1, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7daf18f6-bd7f-4524-981a-f69a9b5607a6)
- **Erick-Woods Erickson** — Ken Paxton wins TX Senate (2026) (Race Winners, Sep 30, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c915841c-31d3-450c-a8e0-6213c8580366)
- **Chuck Todd** — James Talarico wins TX Senate (2026) (Race Winners, Sep 30, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9650e726-620e-4304-b9d5-fa9928993030)
- **Chuck Todd** — James Talarico wins TX Senate (2026) (Race Winners, Sep 30, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cfdc9b56-8271-4dde-917f-1d01a5cc83eb)
- **Buck Sexton** — Ken Paxton wins TX Senate (2026) (Race Winners, Sep 29, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cda36800-ef36-4a19-8cb5-75eed48a3743)
- **Ryan Girdusky** — James Talarico wins TX Senate (2026) (Race Winners, Sep 28, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/150f003a-8174-4a56-a615-719e021568d9)
- **Chuck Todd** — James Talarico wins TX Senate (2026) (Race Winners, Sep 28, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e553256b-e67e-4480-83a1-e5e0b4064ac2)
- **Chuck Todd** — James Talarico wins TX Senate (2026) (Race Winners, Sep 28, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5fe0ae2a-1cc2-4fca-aafa-32d0d31694b4)
- **Geoffrey Skelley** — James Talarico wins TX Senate (2026) — “toss-up column; a very small edge in terms of probability of victory, pretty close to fifty fifty” (Race Winners, Sep 25, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/787d9041-21dc-443f-85df-8ace25a5274d)
- **Gabe Fleisher** — Ken Paxton wins TX Senate (2026) (Race Winners, Sep 22, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82f6aea7-73f9-483c-9ea9-cf1ff967759d)
- **Buck Sexton** — Ken Paxton wins TX Senate (2026) (Race Winners, Sep 17, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/428b122f-ae08-4670-8631-984de54c5a4c)
- **Clay Travis** — Ken Paxton wins TX Senate (2026) (Race Winners, Sep 17, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/267107dc-bfd9-4ce0-84b7-f26d0821d12a)
- **Ryan Girdusky** — James Talarico wins TX Senate (2026) — “probably the favorite candidate to win right now” (Race Winners, Sep 16, 2026) · [the take](https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8df5463b-7954-44c4-8731-c0d3a7699862)