# How Accurate Are NFL Experts' Predictions? The Numbers

Figures as of 2026-10-06; they move as the season resolves.

## How accurate are NFL experts' predictions?

Across 11,174 graded NFL predictions, the average call scored 62.0 out of 100. 53% were hits (80 or better) and 32% were misses (under 40).

## Do NFL experts beat a naive guess?

The average graded call scored 17.7 points above what a naive guess on the same question would have. Of the 51 pundits with ten or more graded articles, 40 (78%) beat the naive guess over their whole record.

## Which NFL predictions are hardest to get right?

Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls calls are the hardest we grade, averaging 0.0 out of 100 across 65 graded calls; Roster Spot Calls calls are the easiest, at 89.6.

| Kind of call | Graded | Accuracy | Naive guess |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Roster Spot Calls | 1604 | 89.6 | 79 |
| Depth Chart Calls | 491 | 88.2 | 82 |
| Position Order Calls | 184 | 78.1 | 23 |
| Power Rankings | 148 | 66.1 | 54 |
| Fantasy Rankings | 51 | 66.1 | 50 |
| Mock Draft Picks | 2919 | 66.0 | 50 |
| Score Predictions | 795 | 60.7 | 56 |
| Playoff Picks | 486 | 59.5 | 51 |
| Game Outcome Picks | 1969 | 58.0 | 57 |
| Top Player Lists | 74 | 56.9 | 50 |
| Trade and Signing Calls | 194 | 53.6 | 26 |
| Sleeper Calls | 178 | 52.8 | 47 |
| Season Win Totals | 284 | 49.1 | 45 |
| Seeding, Byes and Home Field | 51 | 39.2 | 22 |
| Player Season Numbers | 140 | 35.9 | 35 |
| Positional Finishes | 271 | 35.1 | 28 |
| Super Bowl Picks | 137 | 34.3 | 9 |
| Division Winners | 351 | 27.4 | 16 |
| Conference Champions | 187 | 25.1 | 19 |
| Award Picks | 354 | 21.2 | 0 |
| Coach Award Picks | 66 | 18.2 | 0 |
| Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls | 65 | 0.0 | 78 |

## How accurate are NFL mock drafts?

A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.

| Mocked in | Graded picks | Average miss (picks) | Accuracy |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Round 1 (picks 1–32) | 1676 | 10.2 | 76.3 |
| Round 2 (33–64) | 112 | 24.9 | 49.5 |
| Round 3 (65–100) | 94 | 33.4 | 38.7 |
| Day 3 (101–175) | 158 | 41.5 | 32.7 |
| Late Day 3 (176+) | 93 | 49.6 | 26.9 |

## Who is the most accurate NFL analyst?

Ranked by MissedTakes Score; ten or more graded articles to be ranked. Full ranking: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/leaderboard

1. [Lance Zierlein](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lance-zierlein) — score 51.1, accuracy 67.5, 44 graded
2. [Bryan DeArdo](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bryan-deardo) — score 48.4, accuracy 71.7, 16 graded
3. [Bill Huber](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bill-huber) — score 47.8, accuracy 81.8, 61 graded
4. [Joe Marino](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/joe-marino) — score 46.2, accuracy 77.6, 170 graded
5. [Tom Pelissero](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tom-pelissero) — score 44.9, accuracy 82.4, 34 graded
6. [Pat Fitzmaurice](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/pat-fitzmaurice) — score 44.7, accuracy 61.1, 160 graded
7. [Derek Brown](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/derek-brown) — score 39.7, accuracy 65.7, 105 graded
8. [Peter Schrager](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/peter-schrager) — score 36.4, accuracy 69.3, 50 graded
9. [Bucky Brooks](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bucky-brooks) — score 32.8, accuracy 76.5, 118 graded
10. [Rich Hribar](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/rich-hribar) — score 32.7, accuracy 68.8, 64 graded

## Cite these numbers

MissedTakes, "How Accurate Are NFL Experts' Predictions? The Numbers", missedtakes.co/nfl/accuracy, accessed 2026-10-06.

CSV: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/accuracy.csv · Methodology: https://missedtakes.co/methodology