# Bills vs Texans predictions, graded

Week 1, 2026: Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Sep 13, 2026 · final: Bills 36, Texans 31 · 34 calls on record · updated Sep 15, 9:20 AM ET

Who do pundits pick in Bills vs Texans? Of 28 pundits with a call on record, 23 take the Texans and 5 take the Bills. 8 named a score; the median has the Texans by 2.5. The Bills won 36-31, so 5 of 28 had the winner. Their graded calls averaged 31 out of 100.

Picks by outlet. Each pundit counted once, at the outlet or show their latest call ran on. An outlet is listed when two or more of its pundits have picked.

- [Sports Illustrated](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/sports-illustrated): Texans 7, Bills 2
- [CBS Sports](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/cbs-sports): Texans 5, Bills 1
- [First Things First (podcast)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/first-things-first-podcast): Texans 3, Bills 1
- [John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/john-and-lance-espn-houston-podcast): all 3 Texans

The other 6 pundits write or talk elsewhere: Texans 5, Bills 1.

Page: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/games/2026-week-1-bills-at-texans

Picks:

- [John Breech](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-breech) took the Texans; said Sep 13, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9da8cc61-bdc3-40fd-bd7f-c02c99fe7b00
- [Danny Parkins](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/danny-parkins) took the Bills; said Sep 11, 2026; on First Things First (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/36c480cc-6b54-4cea-8204-3fc00ea6493c
- [Eric Mangini](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/eric-mangini) took the Texans; said Sep 11, 2026; on First Things First (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e5bc3ec1-bf97-4273-a223-f5661d0cca8a
- [Kevin Wildes](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/kevin-wildes) took the Texans; said Sep 11, 2026; on First Things First (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f28f3fe2-4d14-4184-9168-052e865ecb0b
- [Rich Eisen](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/rich-eisen) took the Texans; said Sep 11, 2026; on The Rich Eisen Show (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/05909f6e-b266-47e2-b453-d26bf5eb2a43
- [Nick Shook](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nick-shook) took the Texans; said Sep 11, 2026; on Around the NFL (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ae15f1d0-9ea1-4b85-a08f-3cdf228630b7
- [John Granato](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-granato) took the Texans; said Sep 11, 2026; on John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7e5667ab-d120-4333-bd33-74701c5f467f
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast) took the Texans; said Sep 11, 2026; on John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0)
- [Lance Zierlein](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lance-zierlein) took the Texans, Texans 23–Bills 17; said Sep 11, 2026; on John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast); scored 47.62 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 36.83) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c2b6cc1d-750a-4e1d-bd7a-658edf325854
- [Carter Bahns](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/carter-bahns) took the Texans, Texans 24–Bills 20; said Sep 11, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 47.62 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 36.83) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fcecf6ea-f376-4c12-af2d-069a4f753bc3
- [Jordan Dajani](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jordan-dajani) took the Texans, Texans 23–Bills 21; said Sep 11, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 42.86 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 36.83) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/290c525b-8b13-4fe3-aef0-8cc5bbc8b892
- [Jared Dubin](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jared-dubin) took the Texans, Texans 20–Bills 17; said Sep 11, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 45.24 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 36.83) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3a9aea65-224c-4050-947f-0a4acab886c3
- [Joe Gibbs](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/joe-gibbs) took the Texans; said Sep 10, 2026; on Sharp Football Analysis; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07c84a58-a75a-4e18-ba44-49a11d21e42e
- [Jordan Dajani](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jordan-dajani) took the Texans, Texans 23–Bills 21; said Sep 10, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 42.86 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 36.83) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f6565d23-03db-4e60-a574-21a0b86dafb0
- [Jared Dubin](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jared-dubin) took the Texans, Texans 20–Bills 17; said Sep 10, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 45.24 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 36.83) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5017ce6e-d3fa-471a-bcf6-b9834182fded
- [Tyler Sullivan](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tyler-sullivan) took the Texans; said Sep 10, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cd6c3269-8c90-4044-9c48-0b1fc3537699
- [Richard Sherman](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/richard-sherman) took the Bills, Bills 20–Texans 14; said Sep 9, 2026; on The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast); scored 97.62 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 36.83) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3b4f1960-4810-4136-8023-c9a76a0598a3
- [Mike Florio](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mike-florio) took the Texans, Texans 20–Bills 16; said Sep 9, 2026; on NBC Sports; scored 47.62 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 36.83) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4b20f46e-ebc0-462f-9e7a-2ab82f91a2ea
- [Mike Kadlick](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mike-kadlick) took the Bills; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/934613ff-97e3-4894-a383-faa755bdfc35
- [Matt Verderame](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/matt-verderame) took the Texans; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e4f51f97-310d-4665-a47e-fdab93ff1fd1
- [Conor Orr](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/conor-orr) took the Texans; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/54ae8d21-7621-4c3d-816c-e879aed9b5c2
- [John Pluym](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-pluym) took the Texans; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e7e5c159-21f2-4766-92de-857294ef51cf
- [Mitch Goldich](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mitch-goldich) took the Texans; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/643de3da-467f-48c2-a141-4656c392ab89
- [Albert Breer](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/albert-breer) took the Bills; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/81a0a660-de14-460e-a283-c357a6a1bcda
- [Eva Geitheim](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/eva-geitheim) took the Texans; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/599df4d8-af5a-4097-b802-1d21ce7b6ce1
- [Gilberto Manzano](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/gilberto-manzano) took the Texans; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f6e2bb80-47ba-4803-9002-1ab10e7ee54c
- [Pete Prisco](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/pete-prisco) took the Bills, Bills 23–Texans 20; said Sep 9, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 95.24 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 36.83) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d6f9bde0-aad0-4013-967c-c197b2e9be19
- [Jared Koch](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jared-koch) took the Texans; said Sep 8, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2efb7200-8a8f-4000-95e6-4c4ca2c7bd0e
- [John Breech](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-breech) took the Texans, Texans 20–Bills 19; said Sep 8, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 40.48 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 36.83) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b823d5ce-fc63-4d24-9f48-839f494b538a
- [Richard Sherman](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/richard-sherman) took the Bills; said Sep 5, 2026; on The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/72ff16c2-b2aa-4bf7-aad7-0cdabfa8a999
- [Nick Wright](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nick-wright) took the Texans; said Sep 1, 2026; on First Things First (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/36141e4c-80ec-4331-a59f-c417c31aa7a2
- [Jason McIntyre](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jason-mcintyre) took the Texans; said Sep 1, 2026; on The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b33b448-da81-4b34-9c3e-71da132c31b3
- [John Breech](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-breech) took the Bills; said Aug 19, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/50eb251e-cf6b-417d-a0d6-bccba95e06fc
- [John Granato](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-granato) took the Texans; said May 19, 2026; on John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/90fd3c9e-7281-40ec-be9b-f741f1f476b0

## How they came in

The Bills went 12-5 last season and the Texans went 12-5 last season. On win totals, 13 pundits put the Bills at 11.4 wins on average, and 20 pundits put the Texans at 10.2 wins on average.

Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

- Buffalo Bills: 0-0
  - Unit ranks this season: offense 1st, defense 12th of 32
  - Last season: 12-5
  - Win-total calls: 13 pundits, average 11.4, 10 to 14 wins
- Houston Texans: 0-0
  - Unit ranks this season: offense 7th, defense 10th of 32
  - Last season: 12-5
  - Win-total calls: 22 pundits, average 10.2, 1 to 17 wins

## Players to watch

Each club's starting quarterback, leading rusher, receiver and tight end, and its sack and tackle leaders, with their 2026 regular season so far, with the latest call on each from a pundit ranked on the leaderboard whose record beats the naive pick, made since the 2026 schedule came out ("No." is that rank). Leaderboard: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/leaderboard

- [Josh Allen](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/josh-allen) (Starting QB, QB): 2,027 passing yards · 12 TD, 6 INT · 66.1% completions · 285 rushing yards · 8 games; 12th in the NFL in passing yards
  - No. 2 Joe Marino, Sep 7, 2026: Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards (not settled yet)
  - No. 4 Bryan DeArdo, Sep 23, 2026: Josh Allen to win MVP (not settled yet)
- [James Cook](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/james-cook) (RB1, RB): 814 rushing yards on 169 carries · 8 TD · 12 catches for 110 · 8 games; 5th in the NFL in rushing yards
  - No. 2 Joe Marino, Aug 28, 2026: James Cook to make the roster (scored 100 out of 100)
  - No. 12 Derek Brown, Sep 1, 2026: James Cook to finish top 3 at his position, by fantasy points (not settled yet)
- [Khalil Shakir](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/khalil-shakir) (WR1, WR): 31 catches for 412 yards · 1 TD · 8 games; 35th in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 2 Joe Marino, Aug 28, 2026: Khalil Shakir to make the roster (scored 100 out of 100)
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Sep 21, 2026: Khalil Shakir to be 2nd on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [Dalton Kincaid](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/dalton-kincaid) (TE1, TE): 30 catches for 429 yards · 2 TD · 8 games; 32nd in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 2 Joe Marino, Aug 28, 2026: Dalton Kincaid to make the roster (scored 100 out of 100)
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Aug 11, 2026: Dalton Kincaid to fall short of his draft cost (TE11, Overall RK114 | ECR vs. ADP: -14) (not settled yet)
- [Greg Rousseau](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/greg-rousseau) (Sack leader, LB): 8 sacks · 17 solo tackles · 8 games; 2nd in the NFL in sacks
  - No. 2 Joe Marino, Aug 28, 2026: Greg Rousseau to make the roster (scored 100 out of 100)
- [Amani Hooker](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/amani-hooker) (Tackle leader, S): 32 solo tackles · 5 interceptions · 7 games; 34th in the NFL in solo tackles
  - No. 23 Jordan Dajani, Oct 29, 2026: Amani Hooker to move — “could be moved if they found a good offer” (not settled yet)
- [C.J. Stroud](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/c-j-stroud) (Starting QB, QB): 2,251 passing yards · 16 TD, 2 INT · 64.2% completions · 100 rushing yards · 8 games; 7th in the NFL in passing yards
  - No. 1 Jared Koch, Nov 4, 2026: C.J. Stroud: “if he continues his strong play, the Texans will be forced to pay Stroud as one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL” (not settled yet)
  - No. 5 Tom Pelissero, Nov 13, 2026: C.J. Stroud: “if he just finishes like this, 65,000,000 a year and the highest paid quarterback” (not settled yet)
- [Woody Marks](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/woody-marks) (RB1, RB): 341 rushing yards on 95 carries · 2 TD · 15 catches for 98 · 8 games; 28th in the NFL in rushing yards
  - No. 1 Jared Koch, Nov 11, 2026: Woody Marks to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Oct 12, 2026: Woody Marks to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [Nico Collins](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/nico-collins) (WR1, WR): 28 catches for 384 yards · 4 TD · 6 games; 42nd in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 1 Jared Koch, Oct 19, 2026: Nico Collins to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
  - No. 4 Bryan DeArdo, Sep 22, 2026: he played well in Week 1 but wasn't as good on Sunday without Nico Collins, who is expected to miss this Sunday's game against the also-winless Colts (Week 3) (not settled yet)
- [Dalton Schultz](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/dalton-schultz) (TE1, TE): 35 catches for 364 yards · 0 TD · 8 games; 47th in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Aug 23, 2026: Dalton Schultz to outplay his draft cost (late-round) (not settled yet)
  - No. 12 Derek Brown, Sep 2, 2026: Dalton Schultz to outplay his draft cost (ADP 25) (not settled yet)
- [Will Anderson Jr.](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/will-anderson-jr) (Sack leader, DE): 9.5 sacks · 18 solo tackles · 8 games; 1st in the NFL in sacks
  - No. 4 Bryan DeArdo, Nov 3, 2026: Will Anderson Jr. to stay with Houston Texans (not settled yet)
  - No. 16 Mike Kadlick, Nov 12, 2026: Will Anderson Jr. to win Defensive Player of the Year (not settled yet)
- [Kamari Lassiter](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kamari-lassiter) (Tackle leader, CB): 1 sack · 32 solo tackles · 8 games; 34th in the NFL in solo tackles
  - No. 1 Jared Koch, Oct 10, 2026: Kamari Lassiter to record 1 interceptions (not settled yet)

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The room is counted in pundits, each one's latest call standing. Accuracy is out of 100; the naive pick is the home team.
The week: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/games/2026-week-1
Method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology