# Broncos vs Chiefs predictions, graded

Week 1, 2026: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Sep 15, 2026 · final: Broncos 10, Chiefs 31 · 42 calls on record · updated Sep 16, 9:19 AM ET

Who do pundits pick in Broncos vs Chiefs? Of 25 pundits with a call on record, 19 take the Broncos and 6 take the Chiefs. 8 named a score; the median has the Broncos by 2.5. The Chiefs won 31-10, so 6 of 25 had the winner. Their graded calls averaged 25 out of 100.

Picks by outlet. Each pundit counted once, at the outlet or show their latest call ran on. An outlet is listed when two or more of its pundits have picked.

- [Sports Illustrated](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/sports-illustrated): Broncos 5, Chiefs 3
- [CBS Sports](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/cbs-sports): Broncos 4, Chiefs 1
- [Locked On Broncos (podcast)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/locked-on-broncos-podcast): all 4 Broncos
- [First Things First (podcast)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/first-things-first-podcast): all 2 Broncos

The other 6 pundits write or talk elsewhere: Broncos 4, Chiefs 2.

Page: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/games/2026-week-1-broncos-at-chiefs

Picks:

- [Pete Prisco](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/pete-prisco) took the Chiefs, Chiefs 20–Broncos 17; said Sep 14, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 57.14 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 51.93) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/bea2711b-1066-488c-9180-75b8af7b8ab8
- [John Breech](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-breech) took the Broncos, Broncos 23–Chiefs 21; said Sep 14, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 4.76 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 51.93) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/31f3511a-a211-46e0-a6dd-d2cfb70ee207
- [Jordan Dajani](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jordan-dajani) took the Broncos, Broncos 17–Chiefs 14; said Sep 14, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 7.14 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 51.93) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/12e23aa9-d2ca-4db3-bfb0-25c09e63b1eb
- [Tyler Sullivan](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tyler-sullivan) took the Broncos, Broncos 24–Chiefs 20; said Sep 14, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 9.52 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 51.93) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d8636e57-b6d8-471a-a98a-75871c7ee5bf
- [Jared Dubin](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jared-dubin) took the Broncos, Broncos 21–Chiefs 20; said Sep 14, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 2.38 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 51.93) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b4339e96-6ced-44c2-88e9-b490d027df7b
- [Jared Dubin](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jared-dubin) took the Broncos, Broncos 21–Chiefs 20; said Sep 14, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 2.38 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 51.93) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cdfdacff-d438-489d-bad2-1d9587b82609
- [Danny Parkins](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/danny-parkins) took the Broncos; said Sep 11, 2026; on First Things First (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/36c480cc-6b54-4cea-8204-3fc00ea6493c
- [Eric Mangini](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/eric-mangini) took the Broncos; said Sep 11, 2026; on First Things First (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e5bc3ec1-bf97-4273-a223-f5661d0cca8a
- [Shannon Sharpe](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/shannon-sharpe) took the Broncos; said Sep 11, 2026; on Nightcap (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7f7bf5cf-1f4a-4432-beab-5ec7c9549fc7
- [Jared Dubin](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jared-dubin) took the Broncos, Broncos 21–Chiefs 20; said Sep 10, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 2.38 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 51.93) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5017ce6e-d3fa-471a-bcf6-b9834182fded
- [Jordan Dajani](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jordan-dajani) took the Broncos, Broncos 17–Chiefs 14; said Sep 10, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 7.14 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 51.93) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f6565d23-03db-4e60-a574-21a0b86dafb0
- [Tyler Sullivan](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tyler-sullivan) took the Broncos; said Sep 10, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cd6c3269-8c90-4044-9c48-0b1fc3537699
- [Richard Sherman](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/richard-sherman) took the Broncos, Broncos 21–Chiefs 13; said Sep 9, 2026; on The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast); scored 19.05 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 51.93) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3b4f1960-4810-4136-8023-c9a76a0598a3
- [Mike Florio](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mike-florio) took the Chiefs, Chiefs 20–Broncos 17; said Sep 9, 2026; on NBC Sports; scored 57.14 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 51.93) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4b20f46e-ebc0-462f-9e7a-2ab82f91a2ea
- [Albert Breer](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/albert-breer) took the Broncos; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/81a0a660-de14-460e-a283-c357a6a1bcda
- [Mike Kadlick](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mike-kadlick) took the Chiefs; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/934613ff-97e3-4894-a383-faa755bdfc35
- [Matt Verderame](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/matt-verderame) took the Chiefs; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e4f51f97-310d-4665-a47e-fdab93ff1fd1
- [Conor Orr](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/conor-orr) took the Broncos; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/54ae8d21-7621-4c3d-816c-e879aed9b5c2
- [Eva Geitheim](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/eva-geitheim) took the Broncos; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/599df4d8-af5a-4097-b802-1d21ce7b6ce1
- [Mitch Goldich](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mitch-goldich) took the Broncos; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/643de3da-467f-48c2-a141-4656c392ab89
- [John Pluym](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-pluym) took the Chiefs; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e7e5c159-21f2-4766-92de-857294ef51cf
- [Gilberto Manzano](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/gilberto-manzano) took the Broncos; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f6e2bb80-47ba-4803-9002-1ab10e7ee54c
- [John Breech](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-breech) took the Broncos; said Sep 9, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f2f7d1ca-1f9b-4646-abf6-21ea106a4623
- [Pete Prisco](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/pete-prisco) took the Chiefs, Chiefs 20–Broncos 17; said Sep 9, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 57.14 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 51.93) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d6f9bde0-aad0-4013-967c-c197b2e9be19
- [Nick Ferguson](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nick-ferguson) took the Broncos; said Sep 8, 2026; on Locked On Broncos (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c6d92e48-2808-47e6-970b-e31c9a4aef9c
- [Aniello Piro](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/aniello-piro) took the Broncos; said Sep 8, 2026; on Locked On Broncos (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2aa99b2c-5f11-4d48-b51d-07b9f58995ba
- [Sayre Bedinger](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/sayre-bedinger) took the Broncos; said Sep 8, 2026; on Locked On Broncos (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d28c2f15-267e-491a-864a-8e65be3d490b
- [Cody Rourke](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/cody-rourke) took the Broncos; said Sep 8, 2026; on Locked On Broncos (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b68b9fd4-0801-491f-8032-2eb58ddd49ff
- [John Breech](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-breech) took the Broncos, Broncos 23–Chiefs 21; said Sep 8, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 4.76 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 51.93) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b823d5ce-fc63-4d24-9f48-839f494b538a
- [Matt Hamilton](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/matt-hamilton) took the Broncos, Broncos 27–Chiefs 17; said Sep 8, 2026; on KC Sports Network (podcast); scored 23.81 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 51.93) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e43b7185-22af-4821-a2ff-bff17e09eebc
- [John Breech](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-breech) took the Broncos, Broncos 26–Chiefs 20; said Sep 7, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 14.29 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 51.93) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5520649c-0f51-4c45-8c3a-59d7e9f72497
- [Richard Sherman](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/richard-sherman) took the Chiefs; said Sep 5, 2026; on The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/72ff16c2-b2aa-4bf7-aad7-0cdabfa8a999
- [Nick Wright](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nick-wright) took the Chiefs; said Sep 5, 2026; on What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fce97149-84fb-4412-88c5-84a696e7905f
- [Leonard Fournette](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/leonard-fournette) took the Broncos; said Sep 4, 2026; on The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cd544302-f3b5-4585-bea4-8502dbea77a7
- [Nick Wright](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nick-wright) took the Broncos; said Sep 2, 2026; on What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d726dad7-b84e-421c-8274-380142c4ff2e
- [Nick Wright](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nick-wright) took the Chiefs; said Sep 2, 2026; on What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d726dad7-b84e-421c-8274-380142c4ff2e
- [Nick Wright](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nick-wright) took the Chiefs; said Sep 2, 2026; on Around the NFL (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/aae8ba79-6208-4ecb-bbb6-36c252ab789e
- [John Breech](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-breech) took the Chiefs; said Aug 19, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/50eb251e-cf6b-417d-a0d6-bccba95e06fc
- [Sayre Bedinger](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/sayre-bedinger) took the Broncos; said Jul 24, 2026; on Locked On Broncos (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8760a516-d10d-4d40-b449-1169d8b8f8e6
- [Sayre Bedinger](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/sayre-bedinger) took the Broncos; said Jul 24, 2026; on Locked On Broncos (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8760a516-d10d-4d40-b449-1169d8b8f8e6
- [Cody Rourke](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/cody-rourke) took the Broncos; said Jul 24, 2026; on Locked On Broncos (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/129244f8-9c9e-4e2a-917c-bc2c74cfee05
- [Cody Rourke](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/cody-rourke) took the Broncos; said Jul 24, 2026; on Locked On Broncos (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/129244f8-9c9e-4e2a-917c-bc2c74cfee05

## How they came in

The Broncos went 14-3 last season and the Chiefs went 6-11 last season. It is a division game. On win totals, 15 pundits put the Broncos at 10.9 wins on average, and 8 pundits put the Chiefs at 10.4 wins on average.

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

- Denver Broncos: 0-0
  - Unit ranks this season: offense 24th, defense 7th of 32
  - Last season: 14-3
  - Win-total calls: 15 pundits, average 10.9, 9.5 to 13 wins
- Kansas City Chiefs: 0-0
  - Unit ranks this season: offense 4th, defense 8th of 32
  - Last season: 6-11
  - Win-total calls: 8 pundits, average 10.4, 9 to 13 wins

## Players to watch

Each club's starting quarterback, leading rusher, receiver and tight end, and its sack and tackle leaders, with their 2026 regular season so far, with the latest call on each from a pundit ranked on the leaderboard whose record beats the naive pick, made since the 2026 schedule came out ("No." is that rank). Leaderboard: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/leaderboard

- [Bo Nix](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/bo-nix) (Starting QB, QB): 1,730 passing yards · 11 TD, 4 INT · 60.6% completions · 116 rushing yards · 9 games; 18th in the NFL in passing yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Aug 18, 2026: Bo Nix to finish QB1 (1–12) at his position, by fantasy points (not settled yet)
  - No. 10 Shanna McCarriston, Aug 2, 2026: Bo Nix to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [J.K. Dobbins](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/j-k-dobbins) (RB1, RB): 324 rushing yards on 98 carries · 3 TD · 9 catches for 31 · 9 games; 29th in the NFL in rushing yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Jun 26, 2026: J.K. Dobbins to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
  - No. 24 Rich Hribar, Sep 9, 2026: That leaves him as a touchdown-dependent FLEX. (not settled yet)
- [Jaylen Waddle](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jaylen-waddle) (WR1, WR): 30 catches for 337 yards · 2 TD · 9 games; 57th in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 12 Derek Brown, Sep 4, 2026: Jaylen Waddle to outplay his draft cost (drafted as a WR2) (not settled yet)
  - No. 23 Jordan Dajani, Sep 3, 2026: Jaylen Waddle to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [Evan Engram](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/evan-engram) (TE1, TE): 17 catches for 169 yards · 1 TD · 9 games; 137th in the NFL in receiving yards
- [Nik Bonitto](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/nik-bonitto) (Sack leader, LB): 4.5 sacks · 13 solo tackles · 9 games; 22nd in the NFL in sacks
- [Alex Singleton](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/alex-singleton) (Tackle leader, LB): 2 sacks · 50 solo tackles · 9 games; 2nd in the NFL in solo tackles
- [Patrick Mahomes](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/patrick-mahomes) (Starting QB, QB): 2,037 passing yards · 14 TD, 4 INT · 67.3% completions · 8 games; 11th in the NFL in passing yards
  - No. 4 Bryan DeArdo, Nov 3, 2026: Patrick Mahomes to stay with Kansas City Chiefs (not settled yet)
  - No. 5 Tom Pelissero, Sep 4, 2026: Patrick Mahomes to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [Kenneth Walker III](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kenneth-walker-iii) (RB1, RB): 872 rushing yards on 159 carries · 11 TD · 26 catches for 172 · 8 games; 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards
  - No. 4 Bryan DeArdo, Oct 7, 2026: Kenneth Walker III to win MVP (not settled yet)
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Sep 26, 2026: Kenneth Walker III to finish top 4 at his position, by fantasy points (not settled yet)
- [Josh Downs](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/josh-downs) (WR1, WR): 33 catches for 354 yards · 1 TD · 9 games; 51st in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 4 Bryan DeArdo, Nov 6, 2026: Josh Downs to move to Pittsburgh Steelers (not settled yet)
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Oct 29, 2026: Josh Downs to move to Los Angeles Rams (not settled yet)
- [Travis Kelce](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/travis-kelce) (TE1, TE): 33 catches for 482 yards · 2 TD · 8 games; 26th in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Sep 26, 2026: Travis Kelce to finish top 8 at his position, by fantasy points (not settled yet)
  - No. 10 Shanna McCarriston, Oct 4, 2026: Travis Kelce to record 78 receptions (not settled yet)
- [George Karlaftis](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/george-karlaftis) (Sack leader, DE): 4 sacks · 14 solo tackles · 1 interception · 8 games; 30th in the NFL in sacks
  - No. 23 Jordan Dajani, Sep 3, 2026: George Karlaftis to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [Nick Bolton](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/nick-bolton) (Tackle leader, LB): 38 solo tackles · 8 games; 11th in the NFL in solo tackles

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The room is counted in pundits, each one's latest call standing. Accuracy is out of 100; the naive pick is the home team.
The week: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/games/2026-week-1
Method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology