# Falcons vs Steelers predictions, graded

Week 1, 2026: Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sep 13, 2026 · final: Falcons 13, Steelers 20 · 27 calls on record · updated Sep 17, 9:20 AM ET

Who do pundits pick in Falcons vs Steelers? Of 19 pundits with a call on record, 17 take the Steelers and 2 take the Falcons. 3 named a score; the median has the Steelers by 10. The Steelers won 20-13, so 17 of 19 had the winner. Their graded calls averaged 89 out of 100.

Picks by outlet. Each pundit counted once, at the outlet or show their latest call ran on. An outlet is listed when two or more of its pundits have picked.

- [Sports Illustrated](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/sports-illustrated): all 8 Steelers
- [CBS Sports](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/cbs-sports): Steelers 3, Falcons 1
- [The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast): all 2 Steelers

The other 5 pundits write or talk elsewhere: Steelers 4, Falcons 1.

Page: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/games/2026-week-1-falcons-at-steelers

Picks:

- [Jordan Dajani](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jordan-dajani) took the Steelers; said Sep 13, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/aa3d04bb-6a56-4202-9f05-36e5bda5d05f
- [Danny Parkins](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/danny-parkins) took the Steelers; said Sep 11, 2026; on First Things First (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/36c480cc-6b54-4cea-8204-3fc00ea6493c
- [Nick Shook](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nick-shook) took the Steelers; said Sep 11, 2026; on Around the NFL (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ae15f1d0-9ea1-4b85-a08f-3cdf228630b7
- [Garrett Podell](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/garrett-podell) took the Falcons; said Sep 11, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/67ef1d8b-29d9-4a2d-b450-d8542a755fec
- [Jonas Knox](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jonas-knox) took the Steelers; said Sep 11, 2026; on 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82dd7d9f-4c15-4afc-aeff-3eb2cd06030b
- [Lance Zierlein](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lance-zierlein) took the Falcons; said Sep 10, 2026; on John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e4e76173-b44d-4a38-bbf8-d2433cfbd256
- [Mike Florio](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mike-florio) took the Steelers, Steelers 21–Falcons 10; said Sep 9, 2026; on NBC Sports; scored 90.48 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 82.06) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4b20f46e-ebc0-462f-9e7a-2ab82f91a2ea
- [Matt Verderame](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/matt-verderame) took the Steelers; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e4f51f97-310d-4665-a47e-fdab93ff1fd1
- [Mitch Goldich](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mitch-goldich) took the Steelers; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/643de3da-467f-48c2-a141-4656c392ab89
- [Mike Kadlick](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mike-kadlick) took the Steelers; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/934613ff-97e3-4894-a383-faa755bdfc35
- [John Pluym](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-pluym) took the Steelers; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e7e5c159-21f2-4766-92de-857294ef51cf
- [Conor Orr](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/conor-orr) took the Steelers; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/54ae8d21-7621-4c3d-816c-e879aed9b5c2
- [Albert Breer](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/albert-breer) took the Steelers; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/81a0a660-de14-460e-a283-c357a6a1bcda
- [Eva Geitheim](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/eva-geitheim) took the Steelers; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/599df4d8-af5a-4097-b802-1d21ce7b6ce1
- [Gilberto Manzano](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/gilberto-manzano) took the Steelers; said Sep 9, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f6e2bb80-47ba-4803-9002-1ab10e7ee54c
- [Pete Prisco](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/pete-prisco) took the Steelers, Steelers 27–Falcons 17; said Sep 9, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 92.86 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 82.06) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d6f9bde0-aad0-4013-967c-c197b2e9be19
- [John Breech](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-breech) took the Steelers, Steelers 23–Falcons 20; said Sep 8, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 90.48 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 82.06) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b823d5ce-fc63-4d24-9f48-839f494b538a
- [Leonard Fournette](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/leonard-fournette) took the Steelers; said Sep 4, 2026; on The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cd544302-f3b5-4585-bea4-8502dbea77a7
- [Jason McIntyre](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jason-mcintyre) took the Steelers; said Sep 1, 2026; on The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b33b448-da81-4b34-9c3e-71da132c31b3
- [John Breech](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-breech) took the Steelers; said Aug 19, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/50eb251e-cf6b-417d-a0d6-bccba95e06fc

## How they came in

The Falcons went 8-9 last season and the Steelers went 10-7 last season. On win totals, 9 pundits put the Falcons at 6.1 wins on average, and 19 pundits put the Steelers at 9.1 wins on average.

Venue: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

- Atlanta Falcons: 0-0
  - Unit ranks this season: offense 20th, defense 20th of 32
  - Last season: 8-9
  - Win-total calls: 9 pundits, average 6.1, 2 to 9 wins
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 0-0
  - Unit ranks this season: offense 14th, defense 3rd of 32
  - Last season: 10-7
  - Win-total calls: 19 pundits, average 9.1, 6 to 12 wins

## Players to watch

Each club's starting quarterback, leading rusher, receiver and tight end, and its sack and tackle leaders, with their 2026 regular season so far, with the latest call on each from a pundit ranked on the leaderboard whose record beats the naive pick, made since the 2026 schedule came out ("No." is that rank). Leaderboard: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/leaderboard

- [Michael Penix Jr.](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/michael-penix-jr) (Starting QB, QB): 1,444 passing yards · 10 TD, 6 INT · 62.3% completions · 7 games; 26th in the NFL in passing yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Sep 21, 2026: Michael Penix Jr. to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
  - No. 10 Shanna McCarriston, Sep 10, 2026: Michael Penix Jr. to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [Bijan Robinson](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/bijan-robinson) (RB1, RB): 880 rushing yards on 169 carries · 6 TD · 31 catches for 250 · 9 games; 1st in the NFL in rushing yards
  - No. 4 Bryan DeArdo, Oct 10, 2026: Bijan Robinson to record 1,361 rushing yards (not settled yet)
  - No. 12 Derek Brown, Sep 7, 2026: Bijan Robinson to finish top 2 at his position, by fantasy points (not settled yet)
- [Drake London](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/drake-london) (WR1, WR): 44 catches for 692 yards · 1 TD · 9 games; 8th in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 12 Derek Brown, Sep 26, 2026: He's wide receiver one. Where you want to put him in wide receiver one is fine by me. (not settled yet)
  - No. 30 Andrew Erickson, Sep 16, 2026: Drake London to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [Kyle Pitts](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kyle-pitts) (TE1, TE): 25 catches for 220 yards · 4 TD · 9 games; 113th in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Sep 5, 2026: Kyle Pitts to be 2nd on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [Za'Darius Smith](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/za-darius-smith) (Sack leader, DE): 4.5 sacks · 6 solo tackles · 6 games; 22nd in the NFL in sacks
- [Kendal Daniels](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kendal-daniels) (Tackle leader, LB): 1 sack · 40 solo tackles · 1 interception · 9 games; 8th in the NFL in solo tackles
- [Aaron Rodgers](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/aaron-rodgers) (Starting QB, QB): 1,871 passing yards · 13 TD, 6 INT · 60.8% completions · 8 games; 16th in the NFL in passing yards
  - No. 4 Bryan DeArdo, Oct 25, 2026: Aaron Rodgers — Fourth all-time in regular season wins by a starting quarterback: should pass Drew Brees for fourth all-time by season's end (not settled yet)
  - No. 15 Mike Florio, Sep 4, 2026: Aaron Rodgers to move — “will retire from football after the upcoming season” (not settled yet)
- [Jaylen Warren](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jaylen-warren) (RB1, RB): 704 rushing yards on 119 carries · 3 TD · 25 catches for 294 · 8 games; 6th in the NFL in rushing yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Oct 15, 2026: Jaylen Warren to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
  - No. 24 Rich Hribar, Aug 4, 2026: Jaylen Warren to fall short of his draft cost (outside of the RB1 range in ADP) (not settled yet)
- [DK Metcalf](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/dk-metcalf) (WR1, WR): 33 catches for 378 yards · 1 TD · 8 games; 43rd in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 4 Bryan DeArdo, Aug 5, 2026: DK Metcalf to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
  - No. 12 Derek Brown, Sep 12, 2026: DK Metcalf to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [Darnell Washington](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/darnell-washington) (TE1, TE): 19 catches for 254 yards · 3 TD · 8 games; 99th in the NFL in receiving yards
- [T.J. Watt](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/t-j-watt) (Sack leader, LB): 7.5 sacks · 13 solo tackles · 1 interception · 7 games; 4th in the NFL in sacks
  - No. 18 Carter Bahns, Aug 7, 2026: T.J. Watt to make Pro Football Hall of Fame (not settled yet)
  - No. 43 Richard Sherman, Nov 4, 2026: T.J. Watt to win Defensive Player of the Year (not settled yet)
- Payton Wilson (Tackle leader, LB): 1 sack · 35 solo tackles · 1 interception · 8 games; 20th in the NFL in solo tackles

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The room is counted in pundits, each one's latest call standing. Accuracy is out of 100; the naive pick is the home team.
The week: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/games/2026-week-1
Method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology