# Cowboys vs Texans predictions, graded

Week 4, 2026: Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

Oct 4, 2026 · final: Cowboys 34, Texans 30 · 31 calls on record · updated Oct 5, 3:59 PM ET

Who do pundits pick in Cowboys vs Texans? Of 27 pundits with a call on record, 17 take the Texans and 10 take the Cowboys. 15 named a score; the median has the Cowboys by 1. The Cowboys won 34-30, so 10 of 27 had the winner. Their graded calls averaged 50 out of 100.

Picks by outlet. Each pundit counted once, at the outlet or show their latest call ran on. An outlet is listed when two or more of its pundits have picked.

- [CBS Sports](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/cbs-sports): Texans 4, Cowboys 1
- [Nightcap (podcast)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/nightcap-podcast): Texans 3, Cowboys 1
- [DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/dlls-dallas-cowboys-podcast): Texans 2, Cowboys 1
- [Fox Sports](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/fox-sports): Texans 1, Cowboys 1

The other 13 pundits write or talk elsewhere: Texans 7, Cowboys 6.

Page: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/games/2026-week-4-cowboys-at-texans

Picks:

- [Bobby Kownack](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bobby-kownack) took the Cowboys, Cowboys 28–Texans 27; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 92.86 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ab70bbf8-6373-48ac-af86-ce8d9da4da35
- [Brooke Cersosimo](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/brooke-cersosimo) took the Cowboys, Cowboys 25–Texans 23; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 95.24 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7717b6ff-86ce-4cda-b192-202b3b80c3c7
- [Gennaro Filice](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/gennaro-filice) took the Texans, Texans 28–Cowboys 17; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 33.33 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6e4ccf4a-3c43-43c3-9669-50148f4e5452
- [Jeremy Pargo](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jeremy-pargo) took the Cowboys, Cowboys 24–Texans 20; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c480715-cdf3-4092-ac36-f7a4e338e2eb
- [Dan Parr](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/dan-parr) took the Texans, Texans 27–Cowboys 23; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 50 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/816599d6-f95e-4821-addf-bfd5466835e9
- [Pamela Maldonado](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/pamela-maldonado) took the Cowboys, Cowboys 24–Texans 23; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 92.86 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c41cfbfd-b264-4643-bbc5-e3ecc1d02e7d
- [Seth Walder](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/seth-walder) took the Texans, Texans 27–Cowboys 26; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 42.86 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2136c2b6-89e5-4f73-ad78-28d4de9bb6be
- [Eric Moody](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/eric-moody) took the Cowboys, Cowboys 23–Texans 19; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/716d760e-4e9a-419c-943a-aedb384a623f
- [John Breech](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-breech) took the Texans, Texans 23–Cowboys 20; said Oct 3, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 47.62 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/19f6163c-5e76-4dfc-9a1a-b0ac6da3e951
- [Chris Simms](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/chris-simms) took the Cowboys, Cowboys 21–Texans 17; said Oct 2, 2026; on Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9434b7a9-79f2-4276-85cd-2d8abe74c6fe
- [Tyler Sullivan](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tyler-sullivan) took the Cowboys; said Oct 2, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/62dc6648-5bd2-4e17-8f20-ecbe3c67e0f8
- [Richard Sherman](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/richard-sherman) took the Texans; said Oct 2, 2026; on The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/955fb34c-41a3-4e87-817d-b29d2c000272
- [Joe House](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/joe-house) took the Texans; said Oct 2, 2026; on The Bill Simmons Podcast (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/33f18df3-e94e-4a01-b248-bc5b71d22556
- [Jared Dubin](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jared-dubin) took the Texans, Texans 24–Cowboys 21; said Oct 1, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 47.62 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8d6bc2df-9fe0-4167-90e2-374b10b791e8
- [Jordan Dajani](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jordan-dajani) took the Texans, Texans 30–Cowboys 26; said Oct 1, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 50 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/039b1f55-1cda-488c-9369-c39632b57fc8
- [Jared Dubin](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jared-dubin) took the Texans, Texans 24–Cowboys 21; said Oct 1, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 47.62 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/47e42457-0689-4783-b3b3-24c10aef7fd8
- [Tyler Sullivan](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tyler-sullivan) took the Cowboys; said Oct 1, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2ff3b4da-c867-40a5-aac4-bdc2d05b4694
- [Joe Johnson](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/joe-johnson) took the Cowboys; said Oct 1, 2026; on Nightcap (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2bea1ed0-2fb7-4a58-80d5-45c7e09e1cd7
- [Shannon Sharpe](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/shannon-sharpe) took the Texans; said Oct 1, 2026; on Nightcap (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f0f941e1-6805-41f7-90da-12ea4f6b5e01
- [Chad Ochocinco Johnson](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/chad-ochocinco-johnson) took the Texans; said Oct 1, 2026; on Nightcap (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dd31d44b-913b-4eca-b42d-b9ee1031c13b
- [Tyler Sullivan](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tyler-sullivan) took the Cowboys, Cowboys 27–Texans 23; said Sep 30, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1b7f0155-94a5-4221-a511-cb3e84a85519
- [Pete Prisco](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/pete-prisco) took the Texans, Texans 24–Cowboys 18; said Sep 30, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 45.24 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/acf8df5f-b69a-498e-b31b-d190f627916b
- Nightcap took the Texans; said Sep 29, 2026; on Nightcap (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0)
- [Bucky Brooks](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bucky-brooks) took the Cowboys, Cowboys 31–Texans 24; said Sep 9, 2026; on Fox Sports; scored 92.86 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 42.86) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/af4839b4-9907-44b7-8038-3203854f0522
- [Michael Irvin](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/michael-irvin) took the Texans; said Sep 5, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/321d5125-d077-43d6-b09a-5ea5886eec68
- [Jeff Cavanaugh](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jeff-cavanaugh) took the Texans; said Sep 3, 2026; on DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d04cb132-e9f4-4e11-bb0b-cf0982762ad9
- [Clarence Hill](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/clarence-hill) took the Texans; said Sep 3, 2026; on DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/012c1829-1611-4a5a-b27b-f592577a3e65
- [Jesse Holley](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jesse-holley) took the Cowboys; said Sep 3, 2026; on DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c8bf64dc-c1b3-42db-86f8-51b862676332
- [Michael Irvin](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/michael-irvin) took the Texans; said Sep 2, 2026; on The Rich Eisen Show (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8c7e90c6-e16b-4ee6-8da6-e4dd4b9adb5d
- [Danny Parkins](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/danny-parkins) took the Texans; said Aug 13, 2026; on Fox Sports; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1a6d06c4-7bb0-43e7-891d-6f8b688d4f12
- [John Granato](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-granato) took the Texans; said May 19, 2026; on John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/90fd3c9e-7281-40ec-be9b-f741f1f476b0

## How they came in

The Cowboys are 1-2; the Texans are 0-3 and have lost 3 straight. On win totals, 23 pundits put the Cowboys at 9.5 wins on average, and 20 pundits put the Texans at 10.2 wins on average.

Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

- Dallas Cowboys: 1-2 (88 scored, 82 allowed)
  - Last games: L 31-34 vs Ravens; W 37-20 vs Commanders; L 20-28 at Giants
  - Unit ranks this season: offense 9th, defense 29th of 32
  - Last season: 7-9-1
  - Win-total calls: 23 pundits, average 9.5, 2 to 14 wins
  - The side most pundits took won 2 of 3 Cowboys games
- Houston Texans: 0-3, lost 3 straight (54 scored, 75 allowed)
  - Last games: L 17-19 at Colts; L 6-20 vs Bengals; L 31-36 vs Bills
  - Unit ranks this season: offense 7th, defense 10th of 32
  - Last season: 12-5
  - Win-total calls: 22 pundits, average 10.2, 1 to 17 wins
  - The side most pundits took won 0 of 3 Texans games

## Players to watch

Each club's starting quarterback, leading rusher, receiver and tight end, and its sack and tackle leaders, with their 2026 regular season so far, with the latest call on each from a pundit ranked on the leaderboard whose record beats the naive pick, made since the 2026 schedule came out ("No." is that rank). Leaderboard: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/leaderboard

- [Dak Prescott](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/dak-prescott) (Starting QB, QB): 2,381 passing yards · 16 TD, 5 INT · 64.9% completions · 102 rushing yards · 9 games; 3rd in the NFL in passing yards
  - No. 4 Bryan DeArdo, Nov 3, 2026: Dak Prescott to stay with Dallas Cowboys (not settled yet)
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Aug 11, 2026: Dak Prescott to outplay his draft cost (the middle rounds) (not settled yet)
- [Javonte Williams](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/javonte-williams) (RB1, RB): 629 rushing yards on 154 carries · 10 TD · 24 catches for 127 · 9 games; 9th in the NFL in rushing yards
  - No. 12 Derek Brown, Sep 5, 2026: Javonte Williams to finish top 15 at his position, by fantasy points (not settled yet)
  - No. 20 Jake Ciely, Aug 8, 2026: Javonte Williams to finish top 13 at his position, by fantasy points (not settled yet)
- [CeeDee Lamb](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/ceedee-lamb) (WR1, WR): 70 catches for 904 yards · 7 TD · 9 games; 2nd in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Oct 12, 2026: With extra time to recover after a Thursday-night game in Week 5, Lamb could be ready to go when the Cowboys face the Packers this week. (not settled yet)
  - No. 26 Bucky Brooks, Oct 7, 2026: CeeDee Lamb to finish top 1 at his position, by an unstated measure (not settled yet)
- [Jake Ferguson](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jake-ferguson) (TE1, TE): 19 catches for 136 yards · 4 TD · 8 games; 154th in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Aug 11, 2026: Jake Ferguson to fall short of his draft cost (TE12, Overall RK117 | ECR vs. ADP: -8) (not settled yet)
  - No. 30 Andrew Erickson, Sep 16, 2026: Jake Ferguson to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [Quinnen Williams](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/quinnen-williams) (Sack leader, DT): 5 sacks · 20 solo tackles · 9 games; 14th in the NFL in sacks
  - No. 35 Albert Breer, Aug 12, 2026: Quinnen Williams to make team captain (not settled yet)
  - No. 60 Jared Dubin, Aug 10, 2026: Quinnen Williams to win Team MVP (non-QB) (not settled yet)
- [Caleb Downs](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-downs) (Tackle leader, S): 2 sacks · 33 solo tackles · 1 interception · 9 games; 30th in the NFL in solo tackles
  - No. 23 Jordan Dajani, Sep 10, 2026: Caleb Downs to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (not settled yet)
  - No. 48 John Middlekauff, Sep 8, 2026: Caleb Downs to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (not settled yet)
- [C.J. Stroud](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/c-j-stroud) (Starting QB, QB): 2,251 passing yards · 16 TD, 2 INT · 64.2% completions · 100 rushing yards · 8 games; 7th in the NFL in passing yards
  - No. 1 Jared Koch, Nov 4, 2026: C.J. Stroud: “if he continues his strong play, the Texans will be forced to pay Stroud as one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL” (not settled yet)
  - No. 5 Tom Pelissero, Nov 13, 2026: C.J. Stroud: “if he just finishes like this, 65,000,000 a year and the highest paid quarterback” (not settled yet)
- [Woody Marks](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/woody-marks) (RB1, RB): 341 rushing yards on 95 carries · 2 TD · 15 catches for 98 · 8 games; 28th in the NFL in rushing yards
  - No. 1 Jared Koch, Nov 11, 2026: Woody Marks to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Oct 12, 2026: Woody Marks to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [Nico Collins](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/nico-collins) (WR1, WR): 28 catches for 384 yards · 4 TD · 6 games; 42nd in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 1 Jared Koch, Oct 19, 2026: Nico Collins to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
  - No. 4 Bryan DeArdo, Sep 22, 2026: he played well in Week 1 but wasn't as good on Sunday without Nico Collins, who is expected to miss this Sunday's game against the also-winless Colts (Week 3) (not settled yet)
- [Dalton Schultz](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/dalton-schultz) (TE1, TE): 35 catches for 364 yards · 0 TD · 8 games; 47th in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Aug 23, 2026: Dalton Schultz to outplay his draft cost (late-round) (not settled yet)
  - No. 12 Derek Brown, Sep 2, 2026: Dalton Schultz to outplay his draft cost (ADP 25) (not settled yet)
- [Will Anderson Jr.](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/will-anderson-jr) (Sack leader, DE): 9.5 sacks · 18 solo tackles · 8 games; 1st in the NFL in sacks
  - No. 4 Bryan DeArdo, Nov 3, 2026: Will Anderson Jr. to stay with Houston Texans (not settled yet)
  - No. 16 Mike Kadlick, Nov 12, 2026: Will Anderson Jr. to win Defensive Player of the Year (not settled yet)
- [Kamari Lassiter](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kamari-lassiter) (Tackle leader, CB): 1 sack · 32 solo tackles · 8 games; 34th in the NFL in solo tackles
  - No. 1 Jared Koch, Oct 10, 2026: Kamari Lassiter to record 1 interceptions (not settled yet)

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The room is counted in pundits, each one's latest call standing. Accuracy is out of 100; the naive pick is the home team.
The week: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/games/2026-week-4
Method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology