# Patriots vs Bills predictions, graded

Week 4, 2026: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Oct 4, 2026 · final: Patriots 29, Bills 26 · 36 calls on record · updated Oct 5, 3:59 PM ET

Who do pundits pick in Patriots vs Bills? Of 32 pundits with a call on record, 30 take the Bills and 2 take the Patriots. 13 named a score; the median has the Bills by 8. The Patriots won 29-26, so 2 of 32 had the winner. Their graded calls averaged 25 out of 100.

Picks by outlet. Each pundit counted once, at the outlet or show their latest call ran on. An outlet is listed when two or more of its pundits have picked.

- [Sports Illustrated](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/sports-illustrated): all 8 Bills
- [CBS Sports](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/cbs-sports): all 4 Bills
- [First Things First (podcast)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/first-things-first-podcast): all 2 Patriots
- [The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-richard-sherman-podcast-podcast): all 2 Bills

The other 16 pundits write or talk elsewhere: all 16 Bills.

Page: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/games/2026-week-4-patriots-at-bills

Picks:

- [Gennaro Filice](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/gennaro-filice) took the Bills, Bills 27–Patriots 16; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 30.95 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 45.24) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6e4ccf4a-3c43-43c3-9669-50148f4e5452
- [Bobby Kownack](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bobby-kownack) took the Bills, Bills 24–Patriots 17; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 40.48 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 45.24) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ab70bbf8-6373-48ac-af86-ce8d9da4da35
- [Dan Parr](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/dan-parr) took the Bills, Bills 27–Patriots 21; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 42.86 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 45.24) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/816599d6-f95e-4821-addf-bfd5466835e9
- [Jeremy Pargo](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jeremy-pargo) took the Bills, Bills 24–Patriots 21; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 50 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 45.24) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c480715-cdf3-4092-ac36-f7a4e338e2eb
- [Brooke Cersosimo](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/brooke-cersosimo) took the Bills, Bills 27–Patriots 19; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 38.1 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 45.24) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7717b6ff-86ce-4cda-b192-202b3b80c3c7
- [Seth Walder](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/seth-walder) took the Bills, Bills 24–Patriots 20; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 47.62 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 45.24) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2136c2b6-89e5-4f73-ad78-28d4de9bb6be
- [Pamela Maldonado](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/pamela-maldonado) took the Bills, Bills 27–Patriots 17; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 33.33 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 45.24) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c41cfbfd-b264-4643-bbc5-e3ecc1d02e7d
- [Eric Moody](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/eric-moody) took the Bills, Bills 30–Patriots 27; said Oct 4, 2026; scored 50 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 45.24) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/716d760e-4e9a-419c-943a-aedb384a623f
- [Matt Verderame](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/matt-verderame) took the Bills; said Oct 4, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a6970e0a-39d6-4aff-a791-b431ae3714ec
- [Albert Breer](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/albert-breer) took the Bills; said Oct 4, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c95ab8fc-8596-4b38-beff-bcb276d16e88
- [Eva Geitheim](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/eva-geitheim) took the Bills; said Oct 4, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e0e56096-697a-4f16-ae92-47bb2aa79752
- [Mike Kadlick](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mike-kadlick) took the Bills; said Oct 4, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9acdafba-9209-4395-8348-edaaaa6008d5
- [Conor Orr](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/conor-orr) took the Bills; said Oct 4, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/bdf14ffc-c57b-4766-b589-09e449e522bd
- [Gilberto Manzano](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/gilberto-manzano) took the Bills; said Oct 4, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/05dd07c6-3127-4b05-bc35-e5056d15e028
- [John Pluym](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-pluym) took the Bills; said Oct 4, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d5506890-930e-43a0-832a-466d417be9d4
- [Mitch Goldich](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mitch-goldich) took the Bills; said Oct 4, 2026; on Sports Illustrated; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e22d7c12-5d4f-4167-bf26-2ac8762f5466
- [John Breech](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-breech) took the Bills, Bills 30–Patriots 20; said Oct 3, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 33.33 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 45.24) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/19f6163c-5e76-4dfc-9a1a-b0ac6da3e951
- [Shanna McCarriston](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/shanna-mccarriston) took the Bills; said Oct 3, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0a69bc9b-d184-4e92-ad98-64969cbc1ef6
- [Nick Wright](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nick-wright) took the Bills, Bills 28–Patriots 13; said Oct 3, 2026; on What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast); scored 21.43 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 45.24) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d1628b37-47bc-4b85-a3a9-16a1b5123ec5
- [Chris Simms](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/chris-simms) took the Bills, Bills 28–Patriots 20; said Oct 2, 2026; on Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast); scored 38.1 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 45.24) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9434b7a9-79f2-4276-85cd-2d8abe74c6fe
- [Richard Sherman](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/richard-sherman) took the Bills; said Oct 2, 2026; on The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/955fb34c-41a3-4e87-817d-b29d2c000272
- [Mitchell Eisenstein](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mitchell-eisenstein) took the Bills; said Oct 2, 2026; on The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d69febf4-3a3a-44bf-8fdb-d4773447a904
- [Chris Long](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/chris-long) took the Bills; said Oct 2, 2026; on Green Light with Chris Long (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/41d446f1-9bf0-4509-b1ba-f3e8083ed9ee
- [Bill Simmons](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bill-simmons) took the Bills; said Oct 2, 2026; on The Bill Simmons Podcast (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f23c3d92-1029-4603-bc8e-ac3cccd65ba5
- [Greg Auman](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/greg-auman) took the Bills; said Oct 2, 2026; on Fox Sports; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e05ef528-8257-4d4e-ab8f-1e7ab16f6a5a
- [Nick Wright](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nick-wright) took the Bills; said Oct 1, 2026; on What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1084e46f-ca77-4c03-9425-ac0fa5492de2
- [Greg Jennings](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/greg-jennings) took the Patriots; said Oct 1, 2026; on First Things First (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2e19f78c-6600-4b88-991b-a9b17fddbcc1
- [Kevin Wildes](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/kevin-wildes) took the Patriots; said Oct 1, 2026; on First Things First (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1e98afaf-92ca-46c3-b3f3-3817eb8a36b2
- [Nick Wright](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nick-wright) took the Bills, Bills 31–Patriots 13; said Oct 1, 2026; on First Things First (podcast); scored 14.29 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 45.24) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/acc8fe9c-fbcd-4481-bbcc-60880035fa94
- [Sam Monson](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/sam-monson) took the Bills; said Oct 1, 2026; on Check the Mic (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6630e3a9-d04a-4602-9ed7-806579e81c38
- [Tyler Sullivan](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tyler-sullivan) took the Bills, Bills 30–Patriots 20; said Sep 30, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 33.33 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 45.24) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1b7f0155-94a5-4221-a511-cb3e84a85519
- [Pete Prisco](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/pete-prisco) took the Bills, Bills 30–Patriots 17; said Sep 30, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 26.19 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 45.24) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/acf8df5f-b69a-498e-b31b-d190f627916b
- [Rich Eisen](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/rich-eisen) took the Bills; said Sep 28, 2026; on Overreaction Monday (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a1b1409d-2a17-4493-9554-433870911c28
- [Kevin Wildes](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/kevin-wildes) took the Patriots; said Sep 4, 2026; on First Things First (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/989d3882-a69f-47c8-9295-1924f6ff4e6c
- [Mark Wahlberg](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mark-wahlberg) took the Bills; said Sep 3, 2026; on The Rich Eisen Show (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/14761919-29fa-4eda-a3d4-ba0f76f399c2
- [Mark Wahlberg](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mark-wahlberg) took the Patriots; said Sep 3, 2026; on The Rich Eisen Show (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 0) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/14761919-29fa-4eda-a3d4-ba0f76f399c2

## How they came in

The Patriots are 1-2; the Bills are 3-0 and have won 3 straight. It is a division game. On win totals, 17 pundits put the Patriots at 10 wins on average, and 13 pundits put the Bills at 11.4 wins on average.

Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

- New England Patriots: 1-2 (36 scored, 51 allowed)
  - Last games: L 6-35 at Jaguars; W 20-3 vs Steelers; L 10-13 at Seahawks
  - Unit ranks this season: offense 11th, defense 17th of 32
  - Last season: 14-3
  - Win-total calls: 18 pundits, average 10, 9 to 17 wins
  - The side most pundits took won 3 of 3 Patriots games
- Buffalo Bills: 3-0, won 3 straight (101 scored, 78 allowed)
  - Last games: W 24-16 vs Chargers; W 41-31 vs Lions; W 36-31 at Texans
  - Unit ranks this season: offense 1st, defense 12th of 32
  - Last season: 12-5
  - Win-total calls: 13 pundits, average 11.4, 10 to 14 wins
  - The side most pundits took won 2 of 3 Bills games

## Players to watch

Each club's starting quarterback, leading rusher, receiver and tight end, and its sack and tackle leaders, with their 2026 regular season so far, with the latest call on each from a pundit ranked on the leaderboard whose record beats the naive pick, made since the 2026 schedule came out ("No." is that rank). Leaderboard: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/leaderboard

- [Drake Maye](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/drake-maye) (Starting QB, QB): 2,282 passing yards · 18 TD, 11 INT · 65.4% completions · 219 rushing yards · 9 games; 6th in the NFL in passing yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Oct 9, 2026: Drake Maye to finish QB1 (1–12) at his position, by fantasy points (not settled yet)
  - No. 12 Derek Brown, Sep 6, 2026: Drake Maye to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points (not settled yet)
- [Rhamondre Stevenson](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/rhamondre-stevenson) (RB1, RB): 399 rushing yards on 102 carries · 4 TD · 26 catches for 258 · 9 games; 22nd in the NFL in rushing yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Nov 13, 2026: Stevenson is dealing with a knee tendon issue. It won't require surgery, but Stevenson is expected to miss New England's Week 10 game against Detroit (not settled yet)
  - No. 12 Derek Brown, Sep 8, 2026: Rhamondre Stevenson to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [DeMario Douglas](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/demario-douglas) (WR1, WR): 31 catches for 434 yards · 4 TD · 9 games; 31st in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Nov 2, 2026: DeMario Douglas to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
  - No. 33 Alain Poupart, Oct 31, 2026: DeMario Douglas to be 3rd on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [Hunter Henry](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/hunter-henry) (TE1, TE): 32 catches for 361 yards · 2 TD · 9 games; 49th in the NFL in receiving yards
- [Elijah Ponder](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/elijah-ponder) (Sack leader, LB): 7.5 sacks · 14 solo tackles · 9 games; 4th in the NFL in sacks
- [Christian Elliss](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/christian-elliss) (Tackle leader, LB): 1.5 sacks · 32 solo tackles · 9 games; 34th in the NFL in solo tackles
  - No. 32 Connor Rogers, Oct 22, 2026: Christian Ellis logged full practices. He's questionable. I think he'll play. (not settled yet)
- [Josh Allen](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/josh-allen) (Starting QB, QB): 2,027 passing yards · 12 TD, 6 INT · 66.1% completions · 285 rushing yards · 8 games; 12th in the NFL in passing yards
  - No. 2 Joe Marino, Sep 7, 2026: Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards (not settled yet)
  - No. 4 Bryan DeArdo, Sep 23, 2026: Josh Allen to win MVP (not settled yet)
- [James Cook](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/james-cook) (RB1, RB): 814 rushing yards on 169 carries · 8 TD · 12 catches for 110 · 8 games; 5th in the NFL in rushing yards
  - No. 2 Joe Marino, Aug 28, 2026: James Cook to make the roster (scored 100 out of 100)
  - No. 12 Derek Brown, Sep 1, 2026: James Cook to finish top 3 at his position, by fantasy points (not settled yet)
- [Khalil Shakir](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/khalil-shakir) (WR1, WR): 31 catches for 412 yards · 1 TD · 8 games; 35th in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 2 Joe Marino, Aug 28, 2026: Khalil Shakir to make the roster (scored 100 out of 100)
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Sep 21, 2026: Khalil Shakir to be 2nd on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [Dalton Kincaid](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/dalton-kincaid) (TE1, TE): 30 catches for 429 yards · 2 TD · 8 games; 32nd in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 2 Joe Marino, Aug 28, 2026: Dalton Kincaid to make the roster (scored 100 out of 100)
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Aug 11, 2026: Dalton Kincaid to fall short of his draft cost (TE11, Overall RK114 | ECR vs. ADP: -14) (not settled yet)
- [Greg Rousseau](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/greg-rousseau) (Sack leader, LB): 8 sacks · 17 solo tackles · 8 games; 2nd in the NFL in sacks
  - No. 2 Joe Marino, Aug 28, 2026: Greg Rousseau to make the roster (scored 100 out of 100)
- [Amani Hooker](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/amani-hooker) (Tackle leader, S): 32 solo tackles · 5 interceptions · 7 games; 34th in the NFL in solo tackles
  - No. 23 Jordan Dajani, Oct 29, 2026: Amani Hooker to move — “could be moved if they found a good offer” (not settled yet)

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The room is counted in pundits, each one's latest call standing. Accuracy is out of 100; the naive pick is the home team.
The week: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/games/2026-week-4
Method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology