# Raiders vs Patriots predictions, graded

Week 5, 2026: Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

Oct 11, 2026 · final: Raiders 17, Patriots 45 · 28 calls on record · updated Oct 11, 6:02 PM ET

Who do pundits pick in Raiders vs Patriots? Of 25 pundits with a call on record, 16 take the Patriots and 9 take the Raiders. 13 named a score; the median has the Patriots by 3. The Patriots won 45-17, so 16 of 25 had the winner. Their graded calls averaged 48 out of 100.

Picks by outlet. Each pundit counted once, at the outlet or show their latest call ran on. An outlet is listed when two or more of its pundits have picked.

- [CBS Sports](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/cbs-sports): Patriots 4, Raiders 2
- [First Things First (podcast)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/first-things-first-podcast): Patriots 2, Raiders 1
- [The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-richard-sherman-podcast-podcast): Patriots 1, Raiders 1

The other 14 pundits write or talk elsewhere: Patriots 9, Raiders 5.

Page: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/games/2026-week-5-raiders-at-patriots

Picks:

- [Shanna McCarriston](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/shanna-mccarriston) took the Patriots; said Oct 10, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/254e1d98-cffb-4cde-a3ba-a85c83f8c071
- [Shanna McCarriston](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/shanna-mccarriston) took the Patriots, Patriots 27–Raiders 24; said Oct 10, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 50 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 50) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/254e1d98-cffb-4cde-a3ba-a85c83f8c071
- [Gennaro Filice](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/gennaro-filice) took the Patriots, Patriots 20–Raiders 17; said Oct 10, 2026; scored 50 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 50) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7cc33db3-88e5-4811-8121-94bed7928d3a
- [Jeremy Pargo](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jeremy-pargo) took the Patriots, Patriots 23–Raiders 20; said Oct 10, 2026; scored 50 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 50) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/eb5cd6ae-f2ad-49c8-909d-3ad73d196e72
- [Bobby Kownack](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bobby-kownack) took the Patriots, Patriots 24–Raiders 21; said Oct 10, 2026; scored 50 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 50) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/57789de7-9bc6-4cce-aacc-c088bd5aa6fe
- [Dan Parr](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/dan-parr) took the Patriots, Patriots 28–Raiders 26; said Oct 10, 2026; scored 50 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 50) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0c10b52a-0a51-43ee-a55a-78a478f3c2b3
- [Brooke Cersosimo](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/brooke-cersosimo) took the Patriots, Patriots 26–Raiders 23; said Oct 10, 2026; scored 50 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 50) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/bd69c182-b54d-4692-912f-0dd26817dafb
- [Seth Walder](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/seth-walder) took the Raiders, Raiders 23–Patriots 22; said Oct 10, 2026; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 50) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/793c66fa-732d-41fb-9cc3-411c105ee081
- [Eric Moody](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/eric-moody) took the Patriots, Patriots 28–Raiders 20; said Oct 10, 2026; scored 52.38 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 50) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8b18af22-128d-4a43-9c55-860e5adc0bad
- [Pamela Maldonado](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/pamela-maldonado) took the Raiders, Raiders 23–Patriots 21; said Oct 10, 2026; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 50) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6e8dc1f8-b120-4451-8709-9f92b577ed95
- [Chris Broussard](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/chris-broussard) took the Raiders; said Oct 9, 2026; on First Things First (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23fa980d-99b4-4750-adcf-fe1059a50f89
- [Kevin Wildes](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/kevin-wildes) took the Patriots; said Oct 9, 2026; on First Things First (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/72855641-a99e-4060-9395-9f2509a5ef47
- [Eric Mangini](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/eric-mangini) took the Patriots; said Oct 9, 2026; on First Things First (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/af6364dd-ba73-40cb-95fa-a9fa3ddf962b
- [Connor Rogers](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/connor-rogers) took the Patriots; said Oct 9, 2026; on Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cd2f886c-aba0-4ade-bae2-d6fed624673b
- [Nick Wright](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nick-wright) took the Raiders; said Oct 9, 2026; on What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d6364709-7117-4210-a1db-951d1d566d8c
- [Jordan Dajani](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jordan-dajani) took the Patriots, Patriots 24–Raiders 21; said Oct 9, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 50 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 50) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/029d282f-2740-4c4d-af36-07a93d65eb65
- [Nate Tice](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nate-tice) took the Patriots; said Oct 8, 2026; on Football 301 with Nate Tice (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3e67d365-fcc2-4405-b7ce-ce1dadae7cd2
- [Tyler Sullivan](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tyler-sullivan) took the Raiders; said Oct 8, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/40efbe41-c903-4cd7-9185-057d1861efe8
- [Richard Sherman](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/richard-sherman) took the Raiders; said Oct 8, 2026; on The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/92a73b03-9644-439c-b0fc-8b04209830ab
- [Mitchell Eisenstein](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mitchell-eisenstein) took the Patriots; said Oct 8, 2026; on The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8371ccc7-743b-4e3e-9110-79c54cc913ac
- [Tyler Sullivan](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tyler-sullivan) took the Patriots, Patriots 24–Raiders 21; said Oct 7, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 50 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 50) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e47d4e2c-8117-4706-9b6d-f8aa132b8a27
- [Pete Prisco](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/pete-prisco) took the Patriots, Patriots 28–Raiders 24; said Oct 7, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 50 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 50) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9fb2da58-31c1-43f3-bf5e-fe858bdb877d
- [John Breech](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-breech) took the Patriots, Patriots 27–Raiders 24; said Oct 6, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 50 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 50) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/adff8191-46ce-4758-bbee-d01fc48361d3
- [Bobby Bones](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bobby-bones) took the Raiders; said Sep 30, 2026; on Good Morning Football (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7f773793-68a2-4b47-b12a-3405c09f923d
- [Rich Eisen](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/rich-eisen) took the Raiders; said Sep 28, 2026; on Overreaction Monday (podcast); scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a1b1409d-2a17-4493-9554-433870911c28
- [Mark Wahlberg](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mark-wahlberg) took the Patriots; said Sep 3, 2026; on The Rich Eisen Show (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/14761919-29fa-4eda-a3d4-ba0f76f399c2
- [Douglas Clawson](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/douglas-clawson) took the Raiders; said Aug 31, 2026; on CBS Sports; scored 0 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/28fa254b-3e2e-4e95-94ed-cf40271c82ef
- [Rich Eisen](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/rich-eisen) took the Patriots; said Aug 17, 2026; on Overreaction Monday (podcast); scored 100 out of 100 (the naive pick scored 100) — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/70b685bf-8b82-491f-822f-15618e426d43

## How they came in

The Raiders are 3-1; the Patriots are 2-2. On win totals, 14 pundits put the Raiders at 6.6 wins on average, and 17 pundits put the Patriots at 10 wins on average.

Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

- Las Vegas Raiders: 3-1 (115 scored, 84 allowed)
  - Last games: L 27-30 vs Chiefs; W 35-27 at Saints; W 26-14 at Chargers
  - Unit ranks this season: offense 17th, defense 31st of 32
  - Last season: 3-14
  - Win-total calls: 15 pundits, average 6.6, 3 to 17 wins
  - The side most pundits took won 2 of 4 Raiders games
- New England Patriots: 2-2 (65 scored, 77 allowed)
  - Last games: W 29-26 at Bills; L 6-35 at Jaguars; W 20-3 vs Steelers
  - Unit ranks this season: offense 11th, defense 17th of 32
  - Last season: 14-3
  - Win-total calls: 18 pundits, average 10, 9 to 17 wins
  - The side most pundits took won 3 of 4 Patriots games

## Players to watch

Each club's starting quarterback, leading rusher, receiver and tight end, and its sack and tackle leaders, with their 2026 regular season so far, with the latest call on each from a pundit ranked on the leaderboard whose record beats the naive pick, made since the 2026 schedule came out ("No." is that rank). Leaderboard: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/leaderboard

- [Fernando Mendoza](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/fernando-mendoza) (Starting QB, QB): 48 passing yards · 0 TD, 0 INT · 75.0% completions · 1 game; 52nd in the NFL in passing yards
  - No. 4 Bryan DeArdo, Nov 11, 2026: Fernando Mendoza to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Oct 19, 2026: Fernando Mendoza to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [Ashton Jeanty](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/ashton-jeanty) (RB1, RB): 362 rushing yards on 114 carries · 4 TD · 42 catches for 371 · 9 games; 27th in the NFL in rushing yards
  - No. 12 Derek Brown, Aug 25, 2026: Ashton Jeanty to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points (not settled yet)
  - No. 18 Carter Bahns, Nov 2, 2026: Ashton Jeanty to disappoint at the next level (not settled yet)
- [Tre Tucker](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/tre-tucker) (WR1, WR): 33 catches for 529 yards · 4 TD · 9 games; 20th in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Sep 21, 2026: Tre Tucker to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
  - No. 14 Hondo Carpenter, Nov 9, 2026: Tre Tucker to play out his deal with no new contract (not settled yet)
- [Brock Bowers](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/brock-bowers) (TE1, TE): 48 catches for 658 yards · 6 TD · 7 games; 10th in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 5 Tom Pelissero, Sep 18, 2026: But, you know, the Raiders, I... Bauer still doesn't practice. Seems unlikely that he plays this week. (not settled yet)
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Sep 4, 2026: Brock Bowers to outplay his draft cost (anywhere in the back half of the second round in 12-team drafts) (not settled yet)
- [Maxx Crosby](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/maxx-crosby) (Sack leader, DE): 4 sacks · 11 solo tackles · 9 games; 30th in the NFL in sacks
  - No. 3 Damonza Byrd, Aug 29, 2026: Maxx Crosby to move to Las Vegas Raiders (not settled yet)
  - No. 14 Hondo Carpenter, Nov 9, 2026: Maxx Crosby to stay with Las Vegas Raiders (not settled yet)
- [Jeremy Chinn](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jeremy-chinn) (Tackle leader, S): 1 sack · 44 solo tackles · 1 interception · 9 games; 4th in the NFL in solo tackles
  - No. 14 Hondo Carpenter, Nov 9, 2026: Jeremy Chinn to stay with Las Vegas Raiders (not settled yet)
- [Drake Maye](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/drake-maye) (Starting QB, QB): 2,282 passing yards · 18 TD, 11 INT · 65.4% completions · 219 rushing yards · 9 games; 6th in the NFL in passing yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Oct 9, 2026: Drake Maye to finish QB1 (1–12) at his position, by fantasy points (not settled yet)
  - No. 12 Derek Brown, Sep 6, 2026: Drake Maye to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points (not settled yet)
- [Rhamondre Stevenson](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/rhamondre-stevenson) (RB1, RB): 399 rushing yards on 102 carries · 4 TD · 26 catches for 258 · 9 games; 22nd in the NFL in rushing yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Nov 13, 2026: Stevenson is dealing with a knee tendon issue. It won't require surgery, but Stevenson is expected to miss New England's Week 10 game against Detroit (not settled yet)
  - No. 12 Derek Brown, Sep 8, 2026: Rhamondre Stevenson to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [DeMario Douglas](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/demario-douglas) (WR1, WR): 31 catches for 434 yards · 4 TD · 9 games; 31st in the NFL in receiving yards
  - No. 8 Pat Fitzmaurice, Nov 2, 2026: DeMario Douglas to be 1st on the depth chart (not settled yet)
  - No. 33 Alain Poupart, Oct 31, 2026: DeMario Douglas to be 3rd on the depth chart (not settled yet)
- [Hunter Henry](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/hunter-henry) (TE1, TE): 32 catches for 361 yards · 2 TD · 9 games; 49th in the NFL in receiving yards
- [Elijah Ponder](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/elijah-ponder) (Sack leader, LB): 7.5 sacks · 14 solo tackles · 9 games; 4th in the NFL in sacks
- [Christian Elliss](https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/christian-elliss) (Tackle leader, LB): 1.5 sacks · 32 solo tackles · 9 games; 34th in the NFL in solo tackles
  - No. 32 Connor Rogers, Oct 22, 2026: Christian Ellis logged full practices. He's questionable. I think he'll play. (not settled yet)

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The room is counted in pundits, each one's latest call standing. Accuracy is out of 100; the naive pick is the home team.
The week: https://missedtakes.co/nfl/games/2026-week-5
Method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology