# Ryan Girdusky: Gerdusky forecast a 53-seat Republican Senate and 239 Republican House seats with a net gain of roughly 35-36 seats, picked Laxalt in Nevada, Republicans in Virginia's 2nd and Bo Hines in North Carolina's 13th, doubted Tudor Dixon in Michigan, expected Vance to win Ohio by more than ten points, and named Lee Zeldin as his likeliest upset. **Claimed:** Nov 8, 2022 **Pundit:** Ryan Girdusky — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ryan-girdusky **Outlet:** The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-clay-travis-and-buck-sexton-show **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/arttrk.com/p/D5CA5/mgln.ai/e/28/pdst.fm/e/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/57c236de-aec0-46c1-b141-ae3c00026d77/8280840f-5e9a-4211-9a57-af47014da283/audio.mp3?in_playlist=1776c4cc-50a1-410f-a2de-ae3c00026dfa 11 checkable claims — 5 race winners, 3 seat counts, 2 control of congress and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 11 have settled, averaging 36 out of 100, against 61.7 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I predicted a couple of weeks ago that it was going to be a fifty three sen Senate Republicans and then two hundred and they're gonna pick up thirty two hundred and thirty nine House to eat Republicans. I'm about the same place. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **I think Jade Evans is gonna win by over ten points. He's gonna outperform Trump's probably an eleven or twelve percent** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 61.1 out of 100, against 38.9 for a naive guess - **You said you like fifty three in the Senate, two thirty nine in the House.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 15 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess - **They are likely to pick up the second, they are not as likely to pick up the seventh.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **they're gonna pick up thirty two hundred and thirty nine House to eat Republicans** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Pick one upset race where that you feel the best about ... Which one is it? Liez Elvin ... I just I feel the momentum for Lee.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **it was going to be a fifty three sen Senate Republicans ... I'm about the same place** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **he said that Blaxalt was gonna lose in the Senate. But seeing how votes are going right now, I don't know how that's gonna happen. I mean that I don't see how that's going to happen.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Boheins is likely to win.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **what are we looking at for total congressional pickups right now? ... I would say about thirty five thirty six, give or take it.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess - **I predicted a couple of weeks ago that it was going to be a fifty three sen Senate Republicans ... I'm about the same place.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 20 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess - **I don't think Tutor Dick I'm gonna win in Michigan. I don't feel good about Michigan at all.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=ryan-girdusky