# Erin Covey: Covey said whichever party wins the House will do so by only a couple of seats and that Republicans have the slightest of edges, citing Cook's tally of 202 races favoring Democrats and 207 favoring Republicans. She also gave Cook's ratings: Lean Democratic in Oregon's 6th, Lean Democratic for Brandon Williams' upstate New York seat and Marcy Kaptur's Ohio seat, and Republicans as slight favorites to hold New York's 17th. **Claimed:** Oct 17, 2024 **Pundit:** Erin Covey — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/erin-covey **Outlet:** The Inside Elections Podcast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-inside-elections-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://podcasts.captivate.fm/media/3e1809c6-768e-49bb-9872-504c9c62d290/ie033.mp3 7 checkable claims — 4 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 7 have settled, averaging 81.4 out of 100, against 82.9 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I think you can probably say that maybe Republicans have the slightest of edges, but it is very, very close. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **We still have... We have 202 races favoring, Democrats, 207 favoring Republicans.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 35 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess - **right now, we have Brandon Williams, a Republican in Upstate New York in the lean Democrat column** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **We still have... We have 202 races favoring, Democrats, 207 favoring Republicans.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 35 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess - **I think New York seventeen is definitely a race that fits in that category... now it's at a point where it looks like Republicans are at least the slight favorite, to hold it.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **We have we have her in lean d, which is probably the one that Republicans disagree with the most out of all of our ratings.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **We just moved that race to solid Democratic, and you guys still have it at lean Democratic... So I do think this is a race that probably should move on our end.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **And so I think if you... If you're just, like, dividing it down the middle, it's like, I I think you can probably say that maybe Republicans have the slightest of edges, but it is very, very close.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=erin-covey