# Ayrton Ostley: Ausley walked through his final seven-round mock draft, having the 49ers take Utah offensive tackle Caleb Lomu at No. 27, Peter Woods to Houston at 28, TJ Parker to Kansas City at 29, Zion Young to the Chargers at 30, Arvel Reese to Arizona at 3, Dallas trading up to 8, Denver taking Mason Thomas at 58, the 49ers taking Malachi Lawrence at 62 and VJ Payne at 133. **Claimed:** Apr 17, 2026 **Pundit:** Ayrton Ostley — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ayrton-ostley **Outlet:** Locked On 49ers (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/locked-on-49ers-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdrl.fm/f9f75c/lockedon.simplecastaudio.com/0a6076b9-74e2-4b01-846e-5cc0d0b8031c/episodes/5470961f-cef2-49a4-b222-b4000342dab6/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=0a6076b9-74e2-4b01-846e-5cc0d0b8031c&awEpisodeId=5470961f-cef2-49a4-b222-b4000342dab6&feed=P83yLSb_ 10 checkable claims — 9 mock draft picks and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 17 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 9 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 54.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the rest of the room. > For the in the first round, number 27 overall, the San Francisco forty niners take offensive tackle Caleb Lomu, Utah youths. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Peter Woods to be picked at number 28** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Peter Woods, Houston Texans - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Emmanuel Pregnon to be picked at number 37** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Emmanuel Pregnon, New York Giants - Verdict: scored 10.98 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **T.J. Parker to be picked at number 29** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: T.J. Parker, Kansas City Chiefs - Verdict: scored 77.11 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Arvell Reese, Arizona Cardinals - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Zion Young to be picked at number 30** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Zion Young, Los Angeles Chargers - Verdict: scored 52.21 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Malachi Lawrence to be picked at number 62** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Malachi Lawrence, San Francisco 49ers - Verdict: scored 18.46 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Victor Payne to be picked at number 133** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Victor Payne, San Francisco 49ers - Verdict: scored 1.63 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 27** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Lomu, San Francisco 49ers - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **R Mason Thomas to be picked at number 58** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: R Mason Thomas, Denver Broncos - Verdict: scored 45.85 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Dallas Cowboys to pick at number 8** - Kind: Team Draft Slot Calls · About: Dallas Cowboys - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Peter Woods — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/peter-woods - Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/texans - Emmanuel Pregnon — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/emmanuel-pregnon - New York Giants — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/giants - T.J. Parker — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/t-j-parker - Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chiefs - Arvell Reese — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/arvell-reese - Arizona Cardinals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cardinals - Zion Young — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/zion-young - Los Angeles Chargers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chargers - Malachi Lawrence — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/malachi-lawrence - San Francisco 49ers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/49ers - Victor Payne — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/victor-payne - Caleb Lomu — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-lomu - R Mason Thomas — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/r-mason-thomas - Denver Broncos — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/broncos - Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cowboys ## What others said about the same people - Chris Simms on Kansas City Chiefs: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 100) - Connor Rogers on New York Giants: Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/83d1e88b-95a0-45ba-83d3-f86297170c6c (scored 100) - Steven Ruiz on Houston Texans: Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a30ff469-4972-4c48-855b-ba984e4de9d0 (scored 0) - Nate Tice on Denver Broncos: Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b8378e16-ea5c-4107-a883-28aaf0e71134 (scored 100) - Sam Monson on Los Angeles Chargers: Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0b810ffd-fd93-4ea2-a208-b1353dea5fb0 (scored 0) - Jake Arthur on Kansas City Chiefs: Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ca7ab74e-ab34-4ed6-a77f-2c7e9f8c8c4d (scored 97.62) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Ryan Wilson on J.J. McCarthy: Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/44cc5859-8b2b-4fbf-b5c0-62c635f2e357 (scored 36.92) - Nick Shook on Max Iheanachor: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 87.81) - Gregg Rosenthal on K.C. Concepcion: Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8fae9a3a-7fd8-454c-99cc-0a8400c35d7d (scored 67.71) - Daniel Jeremiah on Carnell Tate: Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/48a1d189-dc0f-4250-aa3b-0e27119c733a (scored 91.7) - Jeff Cavanaugh on Lorenzo Styles: Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f1f48cc1-f9d5-44ca-b130-2c6447b49bc6 (scored 0.51) - Pat Fitzmaurice on Makai Lemon: Making a third of the mock's picks, he gave Reuben Bain to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauinoa to Cleveland at 6, Jeremiah Love to Kansas City at 9, Mansoor Delane to Dallas at 12, Cassius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kadyn Proctor to San Francisco at 27 and TJ Parker to New England at 30. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a61a436c-f178-40ce-aedd-fa92cbc80c82 (scored 95.76) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=ayrton-ostley