# Kirk Bado: Asked to pick among four scenarios, Bado said the most likely outcome is a narrow Trump victory with Republicans flipping the Senate — including Mike Rogers winning Michigan's open Senate seat — while Democrats take the House. **Claimed:** Oct 23, 2024 **Pundit:** Kirk Bado — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/kirk-bado **Outlet:** Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/politics-politics-politics-justin-robert-young **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/150595426/3ed9efc639a8dbfa7a838c4f30cde395.mp3 4 checkable claims — 2 chamber control and 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 4 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I think that is probably, as we sit here right now, fifteen days out, the most likely scenario that it is a narrow, narrow, narrow Trump win *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **And because the house will be decided predominantly in blue states and districts that president Biden won, The Democrats win the house.** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **He he wins the White House, Republicans flip the senate... I think that is probably, as we sit here right now, fifteen days out, the most likely scenario that it is a narrow, narrow, narrow Trump win** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **He he wins the White House, Republicans flip the senate** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **They also pick up maybe the Michigan senate seat Okay. As well. It's a narrow gap. Mike Mike Rogers wins the open seat there.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More chamber control The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Sam Wang: Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b4bf6d49-8e25-46a3-92f0-ea5d697121ef (scored 0) - Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 100) - David Pakman: Reviewing the final 2024 forecasts, Pakman said the Senate outcome was essentially settled and stated his own expectation that Republicans would win control of the chamber. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/45530dc9-dd97-4b13-ba4a-53e34dcf9e3f (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/908b2e75-8d71-4514-8d1d-948e8b3190a3 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=kirk-bado