# Sean Spicer: Spicer forecasts Trump carrying Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Nevada, with Republican Senate wins for Mike Rogers in Michigan and Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, and expects New Jersey to be close, within six or seven points. **Claimed:** Nov 3, 2024 **Pundit:** Sean Spicer — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/sean-spicer **Outlet:** Newt's World — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/newt-s-world **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0b197502-72fe-4046-b7b3-ae27016ec147/e2637ae6-4cb8-4752-8e29-b21d001c350b/audio.mp3?in_playlist=8b19f8a8-4942-4dd1-b38d-ae27016ec151 10 checkable claims — 9 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. 9 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 77.8 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I do believe for the first time since two thousand and four, we carry Nevada. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **I'm really bullish on Eric Covedy, not just winning, but I think he's going to be a great, great addition of the Senate.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I think Mike Rodgers... I think that he's going to pull this thing out.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **The growth and registration in every single county in Arizona has been phenomenal... But Arizona, I feel bullish on** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I do believe for the first time since two thousand and four, we carry Nevada.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I feel very bullish on Michigan... He adds out Michigan... This is not going to be huge, but I think he ekes it out** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **she's back on the ballot. That's good news for us. So anyway, I feel good.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Georgia, I'm the most bullish... So for those reasons, I feel good about Georgia.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I think Trump picks this thing up.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **if you look at how Ron Johnson has performed and how he did in twenty sixteen, I feel very good about Wisconsin** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I think New Jersey is going to be close six seven points.** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=sean-spicer