# Scott Bogman: Bogman's mock picks: Arvel Reese to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauigoa to Cleveland at 6, Keldric Faulk to Kansas City at 9, Sonny Styles to Dallas at 12, Cashius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kayden McDonald to San Francisco at 27 and Anthony Hill to Denver at 30. **Claimed:** Feb 20, 2026 **Pundit:** Scott Bogman — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/scott-bogman **Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/2026-nfl-first-round-mock-draft-2-0-ep-1961 10 checkable claims — 10 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 19 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 10 have settled, averaging 64.5 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I'll take the risk for the Cardinals and take rvel risk. Rvel recent number three. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Sonny Styles to be picked at number 12** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Sonny Styles, Dallas Cowboys - Verdict: scored 80.52 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **K.C. Concepcion to be picked at number 24** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: K.C. Concepcion, Cleveland Browns - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 6** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Francis Mauigoa, Cleveland Browns - Verdict: scored 84.09 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Kayden McDonald to be picked at number 27** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kayden McDonald, San Francisco 49ers - Verdict: scored 67.71 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Anthony Hill to be picked at number 30** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Anthony Hill, Denver Broncos - Verdict: scored 27.26 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Arvell Reese, Arizona Cardinals - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Cashius Howell to be picked at number 15** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Cashius Howell, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: scored 32.42 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Avieon Terrell to be picked at number 18** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Avieon Terrell, Minnesota Vikings - Verdict: scored 27.26 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Makai Lemon to be picked at number 21** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Makai Lemon, Pittsburgh Steelers - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Keldric Faulk to be picked at number 9** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Keldric Faulk, Kansas City Chiefs - Verdict: scored 38.56 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess ## Who this take is about - Sonny Styles — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/sonny-styles - Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cowboys - K.C. Concepcion — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/k-c-concepcion - Cleveland Browns — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/browns - Francis Mauigoa — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/francis-mauigoa - Kayden McDonald — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kayden-mcdonald - San Francisco 49ers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/49ers - Anthony Hill — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/anthony-hill - Denver Broncos — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/broncos - Arvell Reese — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/arvell-reese - Arizona Cardinals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cardinals - Cashius Howell — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/cashius-howell - Tampa Bay Buccaneers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/buccaneers - Avieon Terrell — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/avieon-terrell - Minnesota Vikings — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/vikings - Makai Lemon — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/makai-lemon - Pittsburgh Steelers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/steelers - Keldric Faulk — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/keldric-faulk - Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chiefs ## What others said about the same people - Chris Simms on Kansas City Chiefs: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 100) - Connor Rogers on Kansas City Chiefs: Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/83d1e88b-95a0-45ba-83d3-f86297170c6c (scored 100) - Steven Ruiz on Denver Broncos: Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a30ff469-4972-4c48-855b-ba984e4de9d0 (scored 100) - Nate Tice on Denver Broncos: Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b8378e16-ea5c-4107-a883-28aaf0e71134 (scored 100) - Sam Monson on Minnesota Vikings: Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0b810ffd-fd93-4ea2-a208-b1353dea5fb0 (scored 100) - Jake Arthur on Kansas City Chiefs: Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ca7ab74e-ab34-4ed6-a77f-2c7e9f8c8c4d (scored 97.62) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Ryan Wilson on J.J. McCarthy: Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/44cc5859-8b2b-4fbf-b5c0-62c635f2e357 (scored 36.92) - Nick Shook on Jermod McCoy: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 1.94) - Daniel Jeremiah on R Mason Thomas: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 59.46) - Jeff Cavanaugh on Lorenzo Styles: Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f1f48cc1-f9d5-44ca-b130-2c6447b49bc6 (scored 0.51) - Steve Mensch on Caleb Lomu: Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f65851f3-1c53-4ae9-80ef-875db5ce2a3f (scored 62.09) - Tom Pelissero on Ashton Jeanty: Pelissero says Cam Ward is the Titans' pick at the top of the 2025 draft and that Travis Hunter is most likely the Browns' selection at No. 2; he also endorses Tyler Warren as a top-10 pick, expects Ashton Jeanty inside the top 10, and names five under-the-radar players who could sneak into round one, including Emeka Egbuka between picks 20-25 and Tyler Shough (whom he pegs more likely as a Day 2 pick). — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b7089cf4-c63d-4d43-84a4-072b1d2ee328 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=scott-bogman