# Aaron Schatz: Presenting his FTN Football Almanac projections, Schatz/Shotts calls the Texans the clear best team in the AFC and AFC Super Bowl favorite, ranks Seahawks, Rams and Texans as the top three teams in DVOA, projects Bengals and Ravens as strong playoff teams in an easy AFC North schedule, calls Cleveland the worst team in the league, and pegs the Bears with a top-2 offense and the league's worst defense. **Claimed:** Jul 16, 2026 **Pundit:** Aaron Schatz — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/aaron-schatz **Outlet:** Around the NFL (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/around-the-nfl-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/nfl-daily/eight-surprising-team-projections 14 checkable claims — 4 position group rankings, 3 playoff picks, 3 power rankings, 2 season win totals, 1 conference champion and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one. > There's enough of a gap between them and the rest of the AFC that they still look like the best team in the AFC. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **So to go from eighth to like fourteenth... You have them as a bottom three offense** - Kind: Position Group Rankings - Verdict: not settled yet - **you have them as the second ranked offense and the worst defense in the league. ... You had the Packers as the fourth best offense and the twenty sixth best defense** - Kind: Position Group Rankings - Verdict: not settled yet - **It's offense. I mean, we have them projected with the top five offense.** - Kind: Position Group Rankings - Verdict: not settled yet - **Cincinnati Bengals to finish with 9.8 wins** - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: Cincinnati Bengals - Verdict: not settled yet - **to have him go from fifth to fourteenth, which is where they're projected... seventeenth and eighteenth overall in DVOWAY... the projections actually had the Dolphins at twenty sixth in DVOA... I was a little stunned that you had them thirty first in DVOA** - Kind: Power Rankings - Verdict: not settled yet - **Baltimore Ravens to finish with 9.8 wins** - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: Baltimore Ravens - Verdict: not settled yet - **Indianapolis Colts to make the playoffs** - Kind: Playoff Picks · About: Indianapolis Colts - Verdict: not settled yet - **And Cleveland is the worst team in the league.** - Kind: Power Rankings - Verdict: not settled yet - **Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs** - Kind: Playoff Picks · About: Baltimore Ravens - Verdict: not settled yet - **Arizona Cardinals to beat expectations** - Kind: Surprise Team Calls · About: Arizona Cardinals - Verdict: not settled yet - **It's a pretty clear top three teams in the NFL for you too, in terms of DVOA, it's the Seahawks, Rams, and the Texans.** - Kind: Power Rankings - Verdict: not settled yet - **you have them as the second ranked offense and the worst defense in the league... You had the Packers as the fourth best offense and the twenty sixth best defense** - Kind: Position Group Rankings - Verdict: not settled yet - **Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl** - Kind: Conference Champions · About: Houston Texans - Verdict: not settled yet - **Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs** - Kind: Playoff Picks · About: Cincinnati Bengals - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Cincinnati Bengals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bengals - Baltimore Ravens — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/ravens - Indianapolis Colts — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/colts - Arizona Cardinals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cardinals - Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/texans ## What others said about the same people - Chris Simms on Baltimore Ravens: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 97.62) - Chris Long on Cincinnati Bengals: Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3df9ea25-e57f-4fd7-b20c-c910a1c3633a (scored 0) - Steven Ruiz on Houston Texans: Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a30ff469-4972-4c48-855b-ba984e4de9d0 (scored 0) - Nate Tice on Baltimore Ravens: Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b8378e16-ea5c-4107-a883-28aaf0e71134 (scored 100) - Matt Harmon on Cincinnati Bengals: Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/21a71025-ab65-4716-ac2c-e77ad5ce3348 (scored 100) - Nate Tice on Cincinnati Bengals: Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b6211c80-3d1c-46b8-8a0c-151fc0ba92de (scored 73.81) ## More position group rankings The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Rich Eisen: Eisen ranked his top five defenses remaining in the NFL playoffs, with the Texans first, Seahawks second, Broncos third, Bills fourth and Rams fifth. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2a3ce061-cd05-485c-9f71-c7d0ce390a1a (scored 75) - Gregg Rosenthal: In a snake draft of the NFL's best position groups, Rosenthal took the Eagles' tackles as the No. 1 group in the league, followed by the Steelers' edge rushers, Bengals receivers, Texans corners, Lions safeties, Rams defensive tackles, Broncos corners, Chiefs quarterbacks, Patriots corners and Seahawks defensive tackles. He also rated Ja'Marr Chase a top-two receiver and A.J. Brown a top-five receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5539f810-db04-4de0-bf1f-5e3006379250 (scored 75) - Nick Shook: Shook's picks in the best-position-group draft: Buccaneers receivers (over the Bengals), Lions tackles, Ravens tight ends, Steelers interior offensive line, Lions running backs, Giants edge rushers, Ravens safeties, Commanders quarterbacks, Lions defensive tackles and Texans safeties. He also called Jordan Addison one of the league's best No. 2 receivers. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/eefce1fd-b4db-4466-b850-79c0f88969a9 (scored 0) - Brandon Graham: Graham ranked his top five wide receiver duos with the Eagles first, and predicted Philadelphia returns to the Super Bowl, the Rams make the playoffs again, and picked the Commanders' duo over the Cowboys' new pairing. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a054e705-4e72-4c3f-b475-95b2643e8699 (scored 0) - Kyle Brandt: Kyle Brandt ranked his top five NFL wide receiver duos, deliberately excluding newly formed pairings, with Cincinnati first and Tampa Bay fifth. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/88c49d42-2a19-4ded-807c-4ac54bece76b (scored 40) - Jamie Erdahl on Los Angeles Rams: Erdahl ranked her top five wide receiver duos, putting Philadelphia first, Detroit above Minnesota, and Cincinnati fifth. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/331b284f-f71c-4588-9b70-948bf0e82147 (scored 80) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=aaron-schatz