# Mel Kiper: Kiper's post-free-agency mock draft, as relayed on the show, assigns specific prospects to specific picks through the top 20, including Fernando Mendoza at No. 2, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5 and CJ Allen to the Cowboys at No. 20. **Claimed:** Mar 21, 2026 **Pundit:** Mel Kiper — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mel-kiper **Outlet:** DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/dlls-dallas-cowboys-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://tracking.swap.fm/track/xt6bq09fJCm8CxP7DUGF/dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/822/claritaspod.com/measure/prfx.byspotify.com/e/injector.simplecastaudio.com/d5ae5375-e417-4df4-8c3d-3d7ba352b111/episodes/8c4afa87-047e-4d26-ab18-b834f855f4b8/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=d5ae5375-e417-4df4-8c3d-3d7ba352b111&awEpisodeId=8c4afa87-047e-4d26-ab18-b834f855f4b8&feed=4Fqey2NA 20 checkable claims — 19 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 32 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 19 of 20 have settled so far, averaging 73.9 out of 100, against 47.9 for a naive guess at the same calls. Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room. > This is Mel Kuipers mock draft came out this morning, so it's post free agency with those things considered. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Carnell Tate to be 1st receiver off the board** - Kind: Position Order Calls · About: Carnell Tate, New Orleans Saints - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 9.48 for a naive guess - **Sonny Styles to be picked at number 7** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Sonny Styles, Washington Commanders - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **David Bailey to be picked at number 3** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: David Bailey, New York Jets - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 10** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Mansoor Delane, Cincinnati Bengals - Verdict: scored 84.09 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 6** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Monroe Freeling, Cleveland Browns - Verdict: scored 56.94 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs, New York Giants - Verdict: scored 77.11 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 2** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Fernando Mendoza - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jeremiyah Love - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Carnell Tate to be picked at number 9** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Carnell Tate, New Orleans Saints - Verdict: scored 80.52 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Rueben Bain to be picked at number 8** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Rueben Bain, Kansas City Chiefs - Verdict: scored 73.84 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **C.J. Allen to be picked at number 20** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: C.J. Allen, Dallas Cowboys - Verdict: scored 23.94 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked at number 19** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren - Verdict: scored 18.46 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jermod McCoy to be picked at number 12** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jermod McCoy - Verdict: scored 2.12 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Kenyon Sadiq to be picked at number 15** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kenyon Sadiq - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Spencer Fano to be picked at number 14** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Spencer Fano, Baltimore Ravens - Verdict: scored 80.52 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 13** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jordyn Tyson, Los Angeles Rams - Verdict: scored 80.52 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 18** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Dillon Thieneman, Minnesota Vikings - Verdict: scored 73.84 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 17** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kadyn Proctor, Detroit Lions - Verdict: scored 80.52 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Ty Simpson to be picked at number 16** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Ty Simpson, New York Jets - Verdict: scored 87.81 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Francisco Mauigoa to be picked at number 11** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Francisco Mauigoa, Miami Dolphins - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Carnell Tate — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/carnell-tate - New Orleans Saints — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/saints - Sonny Styles — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/sonny-styles - Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/commanders - David Bailey — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/david-bailey - New York Jets — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jets - Mansoor Delane — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/mansoor-delane - Cincinnati Bengals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bengals - Monroe Freeling — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/monroe-freeling - Cleveland Browns — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/browns - Caleb Downs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-downs - New York Giants — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/giants - Fernando Mendoza — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/fernando-mendoza - Jeremiyah Love — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jeremiyah-love - Rueben Bain — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/rueben-bain - Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chiefs - C.J. Allen — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/c-j-allen - Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cowboys - Emmanuel McNeil-Warren — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/emmanuel-mcneil-warren - Jermod McCoy — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jermod-mccoy - Kenyon Sadiq — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kenyon-sadiq - Spencer Fano — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/spencer-fano - Baltimore Ravens — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/ravens - Jordyn Tyson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jordyn-tyson - Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/rams - Dillon Thieneman — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/dillon-thieneman - Minnesota Vikings — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/vikings - Kadyn Proctor — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kadyn-proctor - Detroit Lions — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/lions - Ty Simpson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/ty-simpson - Francisco Mauigoa — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/francisco-mauigoa - Miami Dolphins — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/dolphins ## What others said about the same people - Chris Simms on Kansas City Chiefs: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 100) - Connor Rogers on New York Giants: Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/83d1e88b-95a0-45ba-83d3-f86297170c6c (scored 100) - Chris Long on Cincinnati Bengals: Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3df9ea25-e57f-4fd7-b20c-c910a1c3633a (scored 0) - Nate Tice on Baltimore Ravens: Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b8378e16-ea5c-4107-a883-28aaf0e71134 (scored 100) - Steven Ruiz on Detroit Lions: Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a30ff469-4972-4c48-855b-ba984e4de9d0 (scored 100) - Sam Monson on Minnesota Vikings: Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0b810ffd-fd93-4ea2-a208-b1353dea5fb0 (scored 100) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Ryan Wilson on J.J. McCarthy: Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/44cc5859-8b2b-4fbf-b5c0-62c635f2e357 (scored 36.92) - Gregg Rosenthal on K.C. Concepcion: Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8fae9a3a-7fd8-454c-99cc-0a8400c35d7d (scored 67.71) - Daniel Jeremiah on Keyron Crawford: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 80.52) - Jeff Cavanaugh on Lorenzo Styles: Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f1f48cc1-f9d5-44ca-b130-2c6447b49bc6 (scored 0.51) - Scott Bogman on Olaivavega Ioane: He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0b0cd1a9-31f7-40d9-9b9e-f52957c10494 (scored 70.71) - Pat Fitzmaurice on Makai Lemon: Making a third of the mock's picks, he gave Reuben Bain to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauinoa to Cleveland at 6, Jeremiah Love to Kansas City at 9, Mansoor Delane to Dallas at 12, Cassius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kadyn Proctor to San Francisco at 27 and TJ Parker to New England at 30. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a61a436c-f178-40ce-aedd-fa92cbc80c82 (scored 95.76) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=mel-kiper