# Scott Bogman: He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks. **Claimed:** Feb 8, 2026 **Pundit:** Scott Bogman — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/scott-bogman **Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/real-first-round-nfl-mock-draft-ep-1944 12 checkable claims — 12 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 20 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 12 have settled, averaging 67.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. > David Bailey led the league or led the country... and he is going to be in the top ten for sure, no doubt. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 22** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Olaivavega Ioane, Los Angeles Chargers - Verdict: scored 70.71 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Kayden McDonald to be picked at number 19** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kayden McDonald, Carolina Panthers - Verdict: scored 47.88 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Romello Height to be picked at number 31** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Romello Height, Denver Broncos - Verdict: scored 18.46 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Sonny Styles to be picked at number 7** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Sonny Styles, Washington Commanders - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **David Bailey to be picked at number 4** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: David Bailey, Tennessee Titans - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Peter Woods to be picked at number 25** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Peter Woods, Chicago Bears - Verdict: scored 84.09 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **David Bailey to be picked “top ten” (picks 1–10)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: David Bailey - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Carnell Tate to be picked at number 13** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Carnell Tate, Los Angeles Rams - Verdict: scored 67.71 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Caleb Downs to be picked “top ten” (picks 1–10)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs, Cincinnati Bengals - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Emmanuel Pregnon to be picked at number 28** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Emmanuel Pregnon, Houston Texans - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Denzel Boston to be picked at number 16** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Denzel Boston, New York Jets - Verdict: scored 36.92 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess ## Who this take is about - Olaivavega Ioane — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/olaivavega-ioane - Los Angeles Chargers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chargers - Kayden McDonald — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kayden-mcdonald - Carolina Panthers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/panthers - Romello Height — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/romello-height - Denver Broncos — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/broncos - Sonny Styles — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/sonny-styles - Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/commanders - David Bailey — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/david-bailey - Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/titans - Peter Woods — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/peter-woods - Chicago Bears — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bears - Carnell Tate — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/carnell-tate - Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/rams - Caleb Downs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-downs - Cincinnati Bengals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bengals - Emmanuel Pregnon — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/emmanuel-pregnon - Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/texans - Denzel Boston — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/denzel-boston - New York Jets — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jets ## What others said about the same people - Chris Simms on Denver Broncos: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 97.62) - Connor Rogers on Carolina Panthers: Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/83d1e88b-95a0-45ba-83d3-f86297170c6c (scored 0) - Chris Long on Cincinnati Bengals: Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3df9ea25-e57f-4fd7-b20c-c910a1c3633a (scored 0) - Steven Ruiz on Houston Texans: Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a30ff469-4972-4c48-855b-ba984e4de9d0 (scored 0) - Nate Tice on Denver Broncos: Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b8378e16-ea5c-4107-a883-28aaf0e71134 (scored 100) - Sam Monson on Los Angeles Chargers: Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0b810ffd-fd93-4ea2-a208-b1353dea5fb0 (scored 0) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Ryan Wilson on J.J. McCarthy: Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/44cc5859-8b2b-4fbf-b5c0-62c635f2e357 (scored 36.92) - Lance Zierlein on Jeremiyah Love: Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf600df8-87eb-492b-9d91-f7a2b39104ac (scored 100) - Nick Shook on Max Iheanachor: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 87.81) - Gregg Rosenthal on K.C. Concepcion: Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8fae9a3a-7fd8-454c-99cc-0a8400c35d7d (scored 67.71) - Daniel Jeremiah on R Mason Thomas: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 59.46) - Jeff Cavanaugh on Lorenzo Styles: Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f1f48cc1-f9d5-44ca-b130-2c6447b49bc6 (scored 0.51) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=scott-bogman