# Scott Bogman: They gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.

**Claimed:** Feb 8, 2026
**Pundit:** Scott Bogman — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/scott-bogman
**Outlet:** FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/real-first-round-nfl-mock-draft-ep-1944

12 checkable claims — 12 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 20 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 12 have settled, averaging 68 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> David Bailey led the league or led the country... and he is going to be in the top ten for sure, no doubt.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Kayden McDonald to be picked at number 19**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kayden McDonald, Carolina Panthers
  - Verdict: scored 47.88 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Romello Height to be picked at number 31**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Romello Height, Denver Broncos
  - Verdict: scored 18.46 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 22**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Olaivavega Ioane, Los Angeles Chargers
  - Verdict: scored 70.71 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Denzel Boston to be picked at number 16**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Denzel Boston, New York Jets
  - Verdict: scored 36.92 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Carnell Tate to be picked at number 13**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Carnell Tate, Los Angeles Rams
  - Verdict: scored 67.71 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Caleb Downs to be picked “top ten” (picks 1–10)**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs
  - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Sonny Styles to be picked at number 7**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Sonny Styles, Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Peter Woods to be picked at number 25**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Peter Woods, Chicago Bears
  - Verdict: scored 84.09 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **David Bailey to be picked at number 4**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: David Bailey, Tennessee Titans
  - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **David Bailey to be picked “top ten” (picks 1–10)**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: David Bailey
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Emmanuel Pregnon to be picked at number 28**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Emmanuel Pregnon, Houston Texans
  - Verdict: scored 7.43 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs, Cincinnati Bengals
  - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess

## Who this take is about

- Kayden McDonald — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kayden-mcdonald
- Carolina Panthers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/panthers
- Romello Height — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/romello-height
- Denver Broncos — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/broncos
- Olaivavega Ioane — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/olaivavega-ioane
- Los Angeles Chargers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chargers
- Denzel Boston — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/denzel-boston
- New York Jets — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jets
- Carnell Tate — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/carnell-tate
- Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/rams
- Caleb Downs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-downs
- Sonny Styles — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/sonny-styles
- Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/commanders
- Peter Woods — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/peter-woods
- Chicago Bears — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bears
- David Bailey — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/david-bailey
- Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/titans
- Emmanuel Pregnon — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/emmanuel-pregnon
- Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/texans
- Cincinnati Bengals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bengals

## What others said about the same people

- Zack Kelberman on Sean Fresch Jr.: Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/978f775c-5611-4514-ad2f-b35a6eac0402 (scored 0)
- Zack Kelberman on Sean Fresch Jr.: Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c8c47b8-6041-4282-8d21-d21741d8f11b (scored 0)
- Nate Gosney on Daiyan Henley: After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/60272861-4ad0-4749-b36a-dcdf09b9213f (scored 0)
- Jordan Dajani on Washington Commanders: Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/46f7646f-2c64-4827-a522-67975af79fb6 (scored 95.24)
- Tyler Sullivan on Washington Commanders: Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1bb32676-c3b3-4b8e-8a03-b58396cf98bf (scored 100)
- John Breech on Washington Commanders: Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9fddc8e1-3823-4252-bdd7-f81ef11b1da3 (scored 90.48)

## More mock draft picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Chris Simms on Malachi Corley: Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c0fd4647-2de8-4a5f-bac2-950fed303ee9 (scored 11.46)
- Todd McShay on Keelon Russell: While breaking down LSU's offense, McShay called receiver Jackson Harris a top-50 NFL draft prospect, and later said LSU's Sam Levitt and Alabama's Keelan Russell are potential top-10 picks in a future draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/15d40546-2ab9-4ab8-b5bd-ed0ef7f26ae5 (scored 0)
- Philip Hughes on Kyle Kennard: Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/605a686a-b5f1-4611-82b4-961abf8de93e (scored 33.86)
- Charlie Campbell on Xavier Williams: Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2dd4bf46-e5eb-4dff-8500-95d9fdbd2986 (scored 0)
- Walt on Fernando Mendoza: In a running series of coach/GM hiring and firing grades, Walt projects Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 overall pick of the Raiders in the 2026 draft and has LSU's Garrett Nussmeier going No. 2 overall in their 2026 mock draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/29bb2d31-fbe3-40db-b378-be5ba5d990b0 (scored 100)
- Charlie Campbell on Xavier Williams: Reviewing Week 7 college games, Campbell projects a slate of draft outcomes: Tennessee's Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick in 2026, Alabama's Bray Hubbard as a Day 2 pick and Yhonzae Pierre as a potential first-rounder, Jeremiah Smith as one of the very first players drafted, Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in the 2027 draft, Colin Simmons and Trevor Goosby as top-10 picks, and Jadan Baugh as a first-round pick. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d2c00414-086d-4a40-bb69-7584be496742 (scored 0)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

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