# Dan Parr: Parr picked every Week 5 game with scores, leaning on Chicago's ground game at Lambeau, Seattle's defense against the unbeaten 49ers, and the Rams handling Buffalo on Monday night. **Claimed:** Oct 10, 2026 **Pundit:** Dan Parr — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/dan-parr **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-picks-week-5-2026-nfl-season 15 checkable claims — 15 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. It names 15 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 14 of 15 have settled so far, averaging 62.8 out of 100, against 46.8 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I need to see a defense slow down Ben Johnson's running game before I pick against the Bears. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Los Angeles Rams 31 — Buffalo Bills 27** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Los Angeles Rams - Verdict: scored 47.62 out of 100, against 43.52 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Oct 12, 2026): Rams by 3.5, total 55.5 · this 31–27 calls a bigger Rams win (by 4) and more points (58). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Detroit Lions 32 — Arizona Cardinals 26** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Detroit Lions - Verdict: scored 57.14 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Oct 11, 2026): Lions by 5.5, total 55.5 · this 32–26 calls a bigger Lions win (by 6) and more points (58). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Atlanta Falcons 26 — Baltimore Ravens 19** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Atlanta Falcons - Verdict: scored 50 out of 100, against 34.1 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Oct 11, 2026): Falcons by 3.5, total 44.5 · this 26–19 calls a bigger Falcons win (by 7) and more points (45). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Denver Broncos 24 — Los Angeles Chargers 20** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Denver Broncos - Verdict: scored 95.24 out of 100, against 36.48 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Oct 11, 2026): Broncos by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 24–20 calls a bigger Broncos win (by 4) and more points (44). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Seattle Seahawks 24 — San Francisco 49ers 20** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Seattle Seahawks - Verdict: scored 47.62 out of 100, against 43.62 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Oct 11, 2026): Seahawks by 3, total 46.5 · this 24–20 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 4) and fewer points (44). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **New York Giants 23 — Washington Commanders 21** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: New York Giants - Verdict: scored 70.24 out of 100, against 72.91 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Oct 11, 2026): Commanders by 3.5, total 41.5 · this 23–21 calls a Giants win (by 2; the line gave the Giants 38%) and more points (44). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Minnesota Vikings 20 — New Orleans Saints 17** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Minnesota Vikings - Verdict: scored 83.33 out of 100, against 28.28 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Oct 11, 2026): Vikings by 2.5, total 41.5 · this 20–17 calls a bigger Vikings win (by 3) and fewer points (37). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Cincinnati Bengals 20 — Miami Dolphins 13** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Cincinnati Bengals - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 35.42 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Oct 11, 2026): Bengals by 7, total 44.5 · this 20–13 calls the line’s margin (Bengals by 7) and fewer points (33). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Houston Texans 23 — Tennessee Titans 14** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Houston Texans - Verdict: scored 66.67 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Oct 11, 2026): Texans by 6.5, total 37.5 · this 23–14 calls a bigger Texans win (by 9) and fewer points (37). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Pittsburgh Steelers 21 — Indianapolis Colts 18** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Pittsburgh Steelers - Verdict: scored 78.57 out of 100, against 73.52 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Oct 11, 2026): Steelers by 3, total 41.5 · this 21–18 calls the line’s margin (Steelers by 3) and fewer points (39). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Chicago Bears 27 — Green Bay Packers 21** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Chicago Bears - Verdict: scored 7.14 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Oct 11, 2026): Bears by 1.5, total 46.5 · this 27–21 calls a bigger Bears win (by 6) and more points (48). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Cleveland Browns 19 — New York Jets 17** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Cleveland Browns - Verdict: scored 42.86 out of 100, against 90.19 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Oct 11, 2026): Jets by 2.5, total 38.5 · this 19–17 calls a Browns win (by 2; the line gave the Browns 44%) and fewer points (36). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **New England Patriots 28 — Las Vegas Raiders 26** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: New England Patriots - Verdict: scored 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Oct 11, 2026): Patriots by 3.5, total 45.5 · this 28–26 calls a closer game (Patriots by 2) and more points (54). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Jacksonville Jaguars 23 — Philadelphia Eagles 14** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Jacksonville Jaguars - Verdict: scored 83.33 out of 100, against 96.54 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Oct 11, 2026): Jaguars by 7.5, total 41.5 · this 23–14 calls a bigger Jaguars win (by 9) and fewer points (37). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Dallas Cowboys 30 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Dallas Cowboys - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/rams - Detroit Lions — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/lions - Atlanta Falcons — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/falcons - Denver Broncos — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/broncos - Seattle Seahawks — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/seahawks - New York Giants — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/giants - Minnesota Vikings — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/vikings - Cincinnati Bengals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bengals - Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/texans - Pittsburgh Steelers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/steelers - Chicago Bears — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bears - Cleveland Browns — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/browns - New England Patriots — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/patriots - Jacksonville Jaguars — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jaguars - Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cowboys ## What others said about the same people - Jack Markowski on Brandon Smith: Markowski argues the Steelers should move on from Tyreek Hill given his injury and possible NFL discipline, and names promoting practice-squad receiver Brandon Smith to the 53-man roster as the most obvious way Pittsburgh addresses its receiver need. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/69805779-75a2-4bb5-be53-feb6ac642f0f (scored 0) - Adam Carlson on Jordan Addison: Carlson names three Vikings he expects could be traded before the end of September: quarterback J.J. McCarthy, wide receiver Jordan Addison and linebacker Ivan Pace. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/65e3f9cf-c441-42a2-baaf-7cd3dbebafad (scored 0) - Jared Dubin on Los Angeles Rams: Dubin picks the Rams to beat the Bills in the Week 5 Monday night game, projecting a 28-24 final score as Los Angeles' Nacua-Adams-Williams trio proves too much for Buffalo's defense. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4d5c92bc-d4b9-48e9-bb9f-695f82fee90b (scored 47.62) - Anthony "Tone Digz" DiGuilio on Los Angeles Rams: Picked the Rams to beat the Bills on Monday night because of their defense. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c8da282-f981-43ec-97e4-d147ef00b42a (scored 0) - Darius Butler on Los Angeles Rams: Said Brian Flores could be Coach of the Year for what he is doing with the Vikings defense, and picked the Rams to beat the Bills on Monday night with Stafford outplaying Josh Allen. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/bbaeb70d-e67f-4a28-88ea-c0d95a26f4e9 (scored 0) - Pat McAfee on Los Angeles Rams: Picked the Rams to beat the Bills in the Monday night game at SoFi Stadium. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b11b3677-3d44-49d4-ac2d-bb8ac3179121 (scored 0) ## More score predictions The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jordan Dajani on Buffalo Bills: Dajani picked the Bills to beat the Rams 30-27 on Monday night. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/09826cd4-dbcf-4c85-aa4a-450c3b8c8125 (scored 100) - Gennaro Filice on Buffalo Bills: Filice picked every Week 5 game with scores, backing Cincinnati in a closer-than-expected game at Miami, the Patriots in a low-scoring home win, Houston to finally get off the schneid in Tennessee, and upsets by the Saints, Jets, Packers and Bills. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7cc33db3-88e5-4811-8121-94bed7928d3a (scored 95.24) - Bobby Kownack on Buffalo Bills: Kownack picked all Week 5 games with scores, including the Browns winning at the Jets to reach 4-1, the Broncos handling the Chargers, and the Giants upsetting Washington. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/57789de7-9bc6-4cce-aacc-c088bd5aa6fe (scored 90.48) - Pat Fitzmaurice on Buffalo Bills: Fitzmaurice predicted a 34-31 Bills win over the Rams, suggested the Packers would again blow a lead to the Bears, and said Drake Maye is a high-end to mid-range QB1 going forward. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/09f1aa2e-4381-4584-82b9-6b8b1112f04f (scored 100) - Derek Brown on Buffalo Bills: Brown picked the Browns to beat the Jets and the Bears to beat the Packers, forecast a 31-28 Bills win over the Rams on Monday night, and made several Week 5 availability calls — doubting Tee Higgins, Lamar Jackson, Stefon Diggs and Terry McLaurin while expecting Ja'Marr Chase to play. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6adf08dd-972d-4cce-b6b8-8212332b191e (scored 100) - Jordan Dajani on Buffalo Bills: Dajani lays out projected final scores for every Week 5 game he covers, including Jacksonville handling Philadelphia, Pittsburgh bouncing back at home against Indianapolis, and Cleveland winning outright in New York. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/029d282f-2740-4c4d-af36-07a93d65eb65 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=dan-parr