# Jim Geraghty: Walking through his Senate map, Geraghty said Jim Justice is all but certain to win West Virginia's Senate race, and he dismissed talk of a Democratic upset over Deb Fischer in Nebraska, noting Democrats had not spent money there.

**Claimed:** Sep 25, 2024
**Pundit:** Jim Geraghty — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jim-geraghty
**Outlet:** The Megyn Kelly Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-megyn-kelly-show
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/101/arttrk.com/p/24FDE/claritaspod.com/measure/sxm.simplecastaudio.com/853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7/episodes/31cbec0e-5b5c-41d8-a8a8-93a7713985b9/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7&awEpisodeId=31cbec0e-5b5c-41d8-a8a8-93a7713985b9&feed=RV1USAfC

2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> Jim Justice, who is almost certainly going to win the senate race in West Virginia.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **they keep hearing that in Wyoming, Deb Fisher's in trouble. I'm sorry, Nebraska... Nebraska is a much cheaper state. They still haven't put any money there, so I'm kinda skeptical the Democrats are like, oh, this guy, who nobody's ever heard of is about to pull off the upset of the century.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **And, Jim Justice, who is almost certainly going to win the senate race in West Virginia. That gets Republicans to 50 states.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100)
- Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100)
- Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0)
- Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100)
- Doug Schoen: Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/386f50c7-6523-4997-8d80-f0d9bae3ac4b (scored 100)

---

Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=jim-geraghty