# Clay Travis: Two weeks out from the midterms, Travis forecast a large Republican House gain of roughly 25 to 30 seats, said Adam Laxalt would win the Nevada Senate race, predicted Caroline Leavitt would win her New Hampshire House seat, and said Katie Britt would be Alabama's next senator.

**Claimed:** Oct 25, 2022
**Pundit:** Clay Travis — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/clay-travis
**Outlet:** The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-clay-travis-and-buck-sexton-show
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/arttrk.com/p/D5CA5/mgln.ai/e/28/pdst.fm/e/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/57c236de-aec0-46c1-b141-ae3c00026d77/8e637d23-0013-44fa-b90a-af39013ed580/audio.mp3?in_playlist=1776c4cc-50a1-410f-a2de-ae3c00026dfa

3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 85 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> Out in Nevada, Adam Laxalt is going to win there.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **That's Katie Britt. Next Senator from the Great State of Alabama.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Out in Nevada, Adam Laxalt is going to win there. It appears he now has a substantial lead, potentially flipping a seat**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **very, very favorable towards Publicans the House. We are now talking about potentially a twenty five or thirty seat pickup. That is where the gambling odds have it. This is not going to be remotely close.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: scored 20 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100)
- Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100)
- Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0)
- Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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