# Cabot Phillips: Phillips said Republicans were locked in for at least 48 Senate seats with five toss-ups left, and picked Oregon's governorship as a sleeper, arguing Republican Christine Drazan's share was enough to win a three-way race. **Claimed:** Oct 27, 2022 **Pundit:** Cabot Phillips — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/cabot-phillips **Outlet:** The Ben Shapiro Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-ben-shapiro-show **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pfx.vpixl.com/2jSe3/claritaspod.com/measure/mgln.ai/e/121/traffic.megaphone.fm/BVDWV5384595550.mp3?updated=1763152073 2 checkable claims — 1 race winner and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess at the same calls. > So Republicans are coming in right now, knowing they're gonna get at least 48. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “So Republicans are coming in right now, knowing they're gonna get at least 48. That's assuming you throw in North Carolina and Ohio” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess - “Two things right now seem to show that Republicans are gonna win... And then you've got the republican, Christine Draisen. She's in the low forties, high thirties, but that's enough to win this race because there are three serious candidates. Oregon could have a Republican governor.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More seat counts The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 45) - Glenn Beck: Beck forecast Republicans winning about 53 or 54 Senate seats and clearly taking the House, with GOP wins in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire Senate races. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f9c85b52-0829-4303-9e70-7fd00e9a17fc (scored 20) - Doug Schoen: Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/386f50c7-6523-4997-8d80-f0d9bae3ac4b (scored 0) - Jim Geraghty: Garrity forecast a large Republican wave: a GOP House majority of roughly 229-241 seats, with their final call at 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats, and a 51-48 Republican Senate edge with Bolduc, Laxalt and Johnson winning while Georgia goes to a runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4bdd2c52-9d51-432d-8366-c693d886726e (scored 35) - Ben Shapiro: On election-day 2022, Shapiro predicted Republicans would end up with 53 to 54 Senate seats and thus a Senate majority, with Blake Masters winning Arizona and Adam Laxalt taking Nevada, while expressing doubt about New Hampshire. They also said Brian Kemp would crush Stacey Abrams in Georgia's governor's race and that a red wave would carry Republicans in the House. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1c0cbfad-0103-4466-b426-ad65b638d7f0 (scored 20) - Steve Deace: On the eve of the midterms Deace projected a 42-seat Republican gain in the House and dismissed the idea that Republicans could take the House without also taking the Senate. They also expected Kari Lake to win the Arizona governorship and suggested Laxalt would win Nevada's Senate race even if their margin were squeezed. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/65d9dec6-348b-4e7c-921c-f9ddd93ae844 (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=cabot-phillips