# Lance Zierlein: Zierlein laid out a full mock of the top eight picks of the upcoming draft, and predicted the Texans will likely trade back out of the first round rather than pick at 28. They also expect the Giants to use pick 5 on a receiver and later trade up for Caleb Downs, and thinks Myles Garrett could be traded by the deadline. **Claimed:** Apr 20, 2026 **Pundit:** Lance Zierlein — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lance-zierlein **Outlet:** John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/john-and-lance-espn-houston-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/audioboom.com/posts/8892874.mp3?modified=1776696244&sid=4936948&source=rss 10 checkable claims — 8 mock draft picks, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. It names 17 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 7 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 90.2 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. > There's at least a fifty fifty chance that when I come on the radio Friday morning, the Texans will have not have made a pick on day one. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Rueben Bain to be picked at number 7** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Rueben Bain, Washington Commanders - Verdict: scored 70.71 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 8** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jordyn Tyson, New Orleans Saints - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Carnell Tate, Cleveland Browns - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **David Bailey to be picked at number 2** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: David Bailey - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs, New York Giants - Verdict: scored 77.11 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Arvell Reese, Arizona Cardinals - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jordan Love to be picked at number 4** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jordan Love, Tennessee Titans - Verdict: not settled yet - **Houston Texans to pick “will have not have made a pick on day one”** - Kind: Team Draft Slot Calls · About: Houston Texans - Verdict: not settled yet - **Myles Garrett to move** - Kind: Trade and Signing Calls · About: Myles Garrett - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Rueben Bain — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/rueben-bain - Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/commanders - Jordyn Tyson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jordyn-tyson - New Orleans Saints — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/saints - Carnell Tate — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/carnell-tate - Cleveland Browns — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/browns - David Bailey — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/david-bailey - Caleb Downs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-downs - New York Giants — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/giants - Fernando Mendoza — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/fernando-mendoza - Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/raiders - Arvell Reese — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/arvell-reese - Arizona Cardinals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cardinals - Jordan Love — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jordan-love - Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/titans - Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/texans - Myles Garrett — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/myles-garrett ## What others said about the same people - Sam Monson on New York Giants: Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f4cb7a1e-1380-4f08-b39b-1432b97db846 (scored 0) - Jordan Dajani on Washington Commanders: Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/46f7646f-2c64-4827-a522-67975af79fb6 (scored 95.24) - Tyler Sullivan on Washington Commanders: Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1bb32676-c3b3-4b8e-8a03-b58396cf98bf (scored 100) - Pete Prisco on New York Giants: Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e142b910-0967-4de9-9429-c342bc079205 (scored 35.71) - John Breech on Washington Commanders: Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9fddc8e1-3823-4252-bdd7-f81ef11b1da3 (scored 90.48) - Jared Dubin on New York Giants: Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/04562aeb-eccf-4266-be8e-32a3aacfd6fc (scored 42.86) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Chris Simms on Malachi Corley: Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c0fd4647-2de8-4a5f-bac2-950fed303ee9 (scored 11.46) - Todd McShay on Keelon Russell: While breaking down LSU's offense, McShay called receiver Jackson Harris a top-50 NFL draft prospect, and later said LSU's Sam Levitt and Alabama's Keelan Russell are potential top-10 picks in a future draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/15d40546-2ab9-4ab8-b5bd-ed0ef7f26ae5 (scored 0) - Philip Hughes on Kyle Kennard: Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/605a686a-b5f1-4611-82b4-961abf8de93e (scored 33.86) - Blaine Grisak on Brian Thomas Jr.: Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/627bcf5d-9f1d-4a34-a1b7-53b8f0aebc40 (scored 84.09) - Charlie Campbell on Xavier Williams: Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2dd4bf46-e5eb-4dff-8500-95d9fdbd2986 (scored 0) - Walt on Garrett Nussmeier: In a running series of coach/GM hiring and firing grades, Walt projects Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 overall pick of the Raiders in the 2026 draft and has LSU's Garrett Nussmeier going No. 2 overall in their 2026 mock draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/29bb2d31-fbe3-40db-b378-be5ba5d990b0 (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=lance-zierlein