# Ben Shapiro: Shapiro forecast a strong Republican midterm: the GOP winding up with 52-54 Senate seats, picking up Georgia and Nevada at minimum, and gaining roughly 38-40 House seats with a near-certain House majority.

**Claimed:** Nov 3, 2022
**Pundit:** Ben Shapiro — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ben-shapiro
**Outlet:** The Ben Shapiro Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-ben-shapiro-show
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pfx.vpixl.com/2jSe3/claritaspod.com/measure/mgln.ai/e/121/traffic.megaphone.fm/BVDWV7253035397.mp3?updated=1763182193

5 checkable claims — 2 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 28 out of 100, against 67 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> It's effectively a 100% shot that Republicans take the majority in the house of representatives.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **There is literally no way they will save the house majority. It's effectively a 100% shot that Republicans take the majority in the house of representatives.**
  - Kind: Control of Congress
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **It looks very likely that Republicans are gonna pick up at least 52, 53, maybe up to 54 seats.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: scored 40 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess
- **If you look at sort of the nature of the wave, I'm predicting closer to 40 seats than to 30 seats. At this point, probably 38, 39 seats is not unlikely.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess
- **it looks as though Republicans are likely to pick up Georgia and Nevada at a bare minimum**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **it looks as though Republicans are likely to pick up Georgia and Nevada at a bare minimum**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess

## More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 45)
- Glenn Beck: Beck forecast Republicans winning about 53 or 54 Senate seats and clearly taking the House, with GOP wins in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire Senate races. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f9c85b52-0829-4303-9e70-7fd00e9a17fc (scored 20)
- Doug Schoen: Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/386f50c7-6523-4997-8d80-f0d9bae3ac4b (scored 0)
- Jim Geraghty: Garrity forecast a large Republican wave: a GOP House majority of roughly 229-241 seats, with his final call at 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats, and a 51-48 Republican Senate edge with Bolduc, Laxalt and Johnson winning while Georgia goes to a runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4bdd2c52-9d51-432d-8366-c693d886726e (scored 35)
- Steve Deace: On the eve of the midterms Deace projected a 42-seat Republican gain in the House and dismissed the idea that Republicans could take the House without also taking the Senate. He also expected Kari Lake to win the Arizona governorship and suggested Laxalt would win Nevada's Senate race even if his margin were squeezed. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/65d9dec6-348b-4e7c-921c-f9ddd93ae844 (scored 0)
- Rich Baris: Barris called Republicans taking the House a foregone conclusion with a seat gain he put at the low end around 15-20, projected Republicans at about 52 Senate seats, said Abigail Spanberger would lose in Virginia's 7th, and expected Democrats to hold Virginia's 10th. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/eedfc6a0-bb67-4834-9391-e4018f0ac573 (scored 40)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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