# Gavin Wray: A listener writing in argues that Texas polling showing Talarico at 47.6 and Paxton at 44.7 actually points to a Paxton victory, because the undecided voters will break Republican.

**Claimed:** Oct 16, 2026
**Pundit:** Gavin Wray — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/gavin-wray
**Outlet:** The David Pakman Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-david-pakman-show
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://pscrb.fm/rss/p/clrtpod.com/m/mgln.ai/e/35/traffic.megaphone.fm/SHHWD6489885193.mp3

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> Tallerico, 47.6, and Paxton, 44.7, is a win for Paxton, my friend.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- “A word of caution from Gavin Wray about the Texas polling. Tallerico, 47.6, and Paxton, 44.7, is a win for Paxton, my friend.”
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0)
- Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100)
- Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100)
- Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0)
- Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0)
- Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100)

---

Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=gavin-wray