# Galen Druke: He said Republicans were favored to take back the Senate and that West Virginia's Senate seat was a certain Republican pickup. **Claimed:** Oct 17, 2024 **Pundit:** Galen Druke — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/galen-druke **Outlet:** FiveThirtyEight Politics (podcast archive) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/fivethirtyeight-politics-podcast-archive **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/traffic.megaphone.fm/ESP8090948510.mp3?updated=1729188036 2 checkable claims — 1 control of congres and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Republicans are favored to win back the senate this cycle, and that's because they only need to flip, well, one or two seats to gain control. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Republicans are favored to win back the senate this cycle, and that's because they only need to flip, well, one or two seats to gain control.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **West Virginia, where Joe Manchin is retiring, is a lock for republicans** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More control of congress The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - David Sacks: Sacks forecast a good night for Republicans, saying they would win the House and also take the Senate, driven by the economy and inflation. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fc7b04fc-0539-4075-b2de-339a5121db43 (scored 0) - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 100) - Simon Rosenberg: Rosenberg, quoted from a weekend post, argued the nonpartisan Senate polling showed no red wave and that Democrats remained favored to win the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e0ff6671-0433-44b5-8962-14c22980fcc0 (scored 100) - Doug Schoen: Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/386f50c7-6523-4997-8d80-f0d9bae3ac4b (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=galen-druke