# Connor Rogers: Rogers picked straight-up winners across the Week 8 slate, siding with the Bills over the Ravens, the Lions, Steelers, Jaguars, Bengals, Falcons, Raiders, Broncos, Rams, Patriots, Commanders and the Bears in Seattle.

**Claimed:** Oct 30, 2026
**Pundit:** Connor Rogers — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/connor-rogers
**Outlet:** Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/chris-simms-unbuttoned-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/006cbbeb-1b7a-4729-b380-b3df0127e8db/02686249-75b3-40ce-b58f-b3df0134b685/dd6f1784-9419-40f5-a0bf-b4f30128d6a4/audio.mp3?in_playlist=89df2a40-d377-4495-87df-b3df0134b68b

10 checkable claims — 10 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 10 have settled, averaging 90 out of 100, against 70 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I'm with you, Chris... I think the Bengals are gonna be fine and win the game.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Chicago Bears to beat Seattle**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Chicago Bears
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Nov 2, 2026): Seahawks by 3 · underdog pick, Bears 40%. Graded on who won, not on the spread. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Washington Commanders to beat eagles**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Nov 1, 2026): Commanders by 6 · favorite pick, Commanders 71%. Graded on who won, not on the spread. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **New England Patriots to beat Miami Dolphins**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: New England Patriots
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Nov 1, 2026): Patriots by 7 · favorite pick, Patriots about 3 in 4 (74%). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Las Vegas Raiders to beat Jets**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Las Vegas Raiders
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Nov 1, 2026): Jets by 1.5 · a toss-up, Raiders 47%, Jets 53%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Atlanta Falcons to beat Bucks**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Atlanta Falcons
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Nov 1, 2026): Buccaneers by 2.5 · underdog pick, Falcons 46%. Graded on who won, not on the spread. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Browns**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Pittsburgh Steelers
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Nov 1, 2026): Steelers by 3.5 · favorite pick, Steelers 64%. Graded on who won, not on the spread. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Detroit Lions to beat Vikings**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Detroit Lions
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Nov 1, 2026): Lions by 3 · favorite pick, Lions 60%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Buffalo Bills to beat Ravens**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Buffalo Bills
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Nov 1, 2026): Bills by 3 · favorite pick, Bills 59%. Graded on who won, not on the spread. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Colts**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Jacksonville Jaguars
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Nov 1, 2026): Jaguars by 10 · favorite pick, Jaguars about 4 in 5 (80%). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Cincinnati Bengals to beat Tennessee**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Cincinnati Bengals
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Nov 1, 2026): Bengals by 13.5 · favorite pick, Bengals about 6 in 7 (86%). Graded on who won, not on the spread. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.

## Who this take is about

- Chicago Bears — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bears
- Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/commanders
- New England Patriots — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/patriots
- Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/raiders
- Atlanta Falcons — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/falcons
- Pittsburgh Steelers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/steelers
- Detroit Lions — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/lions
- Buffalo Bills — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bills
- Jacksonville Jaguars — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jaguars
- Cincinnati Bengals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bengals

## What others said about the same people

- John Middlekauff on Caleb Williams: Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. He is pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying he'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. He also sees Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/deaaf3f6-e53e-4080-a0ca-d5f872b54c6a (scored 0)
- Parker Hurley on Jessie Bates: Hurley argues a Jessie Bates trade to San Francisco is unrealistic because Atlanta remains in the weak NFC South race and likely won't sell, and he expects 49ers safety Ji'Ayir Brown to depart in free agency after this season. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7e8279a5-fad4-4c61-9646-0809bdcdaf40 (scored 0)
- Pete Prisco on Chicago Bears: Prisco gives score predictions for every Week 9 NFL game, picking the Bengals to rout the Falcons in Madrid, the Cowboys to rebound at Indianapolis, and the Jaguars to win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dc43909b-bc7f-47aa-b208-5cf7c95844bc (scored 100)
- Bryan DeArdo on Chicago Bears: DeArdo picks the Bears to beat the Buccaneers on Sunday night in a defensive game, predicting a 20-16 final score. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b882443-b481-48fb-b19b-e7f989d85e46 (scored 97.62)
- Christian Booher on Anthony Lucas: Booher previews the Lions' Week 9 trip to Miami, predicting Derrick Barnes takes over as the green-dot linebacker in Jack Campbell's absence, Juice Scruggs starts at center, and boldly forecasting Detroit's first defensive touchdown of the season on an Aidan Hutchinson strip-sack recovered and returned by Barnes. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/228a7c0e-608b-4043-a8fa-eb3f8b2c4ce8 (scored 0)
- Pat Fitzmaurice on New England Patriots: Fitzmaurice predicted a 24-21 Patriots win over the Packers, said he would not be surprised if Jonathan Taylor were inactive amid trade talk, pegged Jonah Coleman as an RB22 rest-of-season value, expected Evan Hull to be Arizona's backup back, and saw Kerby Joseph returning in Week 10 or 11. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/41cd806b-d6f3-401d-ac46-33a027d3a0fd (scored 14.29)

## More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Bill Huber on Green Bay Packers: Huber argues Green Bay has no excuses left and will beat New England in Foxborough, and expects Christian Watson to play despite his rib injury. He also sketches the projected interior offensive line, with John Williams at center and Laken Tomlinson at right guard. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5ab5fa3a-4526-46a4-b11b-a2bc99820cb8 (scored 100)
- Jeremy Brener on Seattle Seahawks: Brener picked the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in Week 9 by a multi-score margin, giving a final score of 27-13, and expressed confidence Seattle would be fine with Drew Lock starting at quarterback. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7eb2d245-63d0-4be0-80ba-3f60197e2b16 (scored 100)
- Albert Breer on Seattle Seahawks: Breer picks the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in their Week 9 NFC West matchup. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4d67a8a5-0c05-4abe-b2ca-f0cef8390b1d (scored 100)
- Tyler Sullivan on Seattle Seahawks: Sullivan picks the Seahawks to win in Week 9. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dfca04b3-5c80-4a2e-b0de-8ac3a25f225b (scored 100)
- Dave Richard on Seattle Seahawks: Richard picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d3db433e-52c6-42d1-a3b0-6b342aac8a9e (scored 100)
- John Pluym on Seattle Seahawks: Pluym picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e3897747-c55f-4340-9e82-03f9730f87ba (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

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