# Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. **Claimed:** Nov 3, 2026 **Pundit:** Andrew Walworth — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/andrew-walworth **Outlet:** RealClearPolitics Podcast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/realclearpolitics-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdcn.co/e/afp-295344-injected.calisto.simplecastaudio.com/de28783a-a808-4145-ac73-dfbf948fb0d0/episodes/8b78eddd-3bae-474d-b84f-ed295db59df0/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=de28783a-a808-4145-ac73-dfbf948fb0d0&awEpisodeId=8b78eddd-3bae-474d-b84f-ed295db59df0&feed=pzzjlbXr 11 checkable claims — 10 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. 10 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 30 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I actually think Talarico wins this... this is the year I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that, Texas goes blue. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “I think Nebraska is just... It's a red state, and it's gonna stay red... they'll keep Nebraska red.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Yeah. I actually agree. I think Darlene Graham pulls it off” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Yeah. I wanna switch... I'll say Kansas stays blue. [Bevan: "No. You mean turns blue."]” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Yeah. I'm with Carl on that. I think Sherrod Brown's gonna take Ohio.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I actually think Talarico wins this. I just think he's got the momentum.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Oh, I actually think, I'm gonna put that one down for the red team. I think Mike Rogers has actually run a very interesting race.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “I I think I think, Henson pulls it out again.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “So a net of Democrats plus three, which means Republicans would keep control of the senate. Fifty fifty. Right? Yeah. Fifty fifty with JD Vance breaking the ties.” - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Yeah. I'm with Tom and Spencer on this. I think she wins.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I think, I think the democrats win. It's too too blue a state.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “What do you think about Alaska? And I think it actually stays red. I think that hurts her.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) - Clay Travis: Clay Travis predicted a Republican sweep in Tennessee — Blackburn for governor, Hagerty for Senate and all nine House seats — said they were optimistic Republicans would flip the Michigan Senate seat from Democrats, and expected the Republican to win the New Hampshire governor's race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8c4341ac-5acc-449c-843e-4361312fe2e0 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=andrew-walworth