# Jeff Singer: Singer previewed the key races, predicting Mike Braun most likely wins the Indiana governorship and that Trump carries Indiana, Ohio, Texas, Montana and Alaska, with Republicans sweeping Nebraska statewide by double digits while Democrats take the Omaha 'blue dot' electoral vote. He also suggested Republicans would rather be in Jacky Rosen's position in Nevada. **Claimed:** Nov 1, 2024 **Pundit:** Jeff Singer — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jeff-singer **Outlet:** The Downballot (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-downballot-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/150959363/0a34a4d7e291e2d6dfe1b3781c84379f.mp3 9 checkable claims — 8 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 9 have settled, averaging 88.9 out of 100, against 98.4 for a naive guess at the same calls. > So in all likelihood, this will be a win for Braun, but we're keeping an eye on it. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **because Nebraska, even though Democrats are likely to carry the Omaha blue dot in its electoral vote, they're likely to sweep the state again as a whole by double digits** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 86 for a naive guess - **even though Democrats are likely to carry the Omaha blue dot in its electoral vote** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **it makes sense for them to try to pull off an upset, but still much rather be frozen [Rosen].** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Trump won 53 to 43% in Alaska in 2020. He's likely to do about the same here, so Peltola really does need a lot of crossover support.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **but it's Montana. It's a dark red state that Trump's going to win by a lot.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **So Donald Trump, he's almost certainly gonna carry Texas... there's really little question Trump's gonna carry Texas.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **it's more complicated in Ohio because Donald Trump, he's going to carry the state again. This isn't a swing state anymore.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **So in all likelihood, this will be a win for Braun, but we're keeping an eye on it. This could be an upset.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **democrats really have not had much success in Indiana a long time, and Trump's going to easily carry the third time** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=jeff-singer