# Geoffrey Skelley: Walking through DDHQ's forecast, Skelley said James Talarico is narrowly favored in the Texas Senate race (58%), that Roger Marshall is favored in Kansas and the Republican nominee in South Carolina, that Tom Cotton is overwhelmingly safe in Arkansas, and that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody have the upper hand in Florida's governor and Senate special races. **Claimed:** Oct 8, 2026 **Pundit:** Geoffrey Skelley — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/geoffrey-skelley **Outlet:** Decision Desk HQ Podcast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/decision-desk-hq-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/219311393/cbb6a40f359183e2ed0b96f0532b9c63.mp3 6 checkable claims — 6 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 6 have settled, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Tallarico's narrowly favored, and it's, you know, ticked up a little bit in his direction. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “So Byron Donalds has, an edge in Florida, but not a huge one... at the end of the day, this is one where Republicans have the upper hand.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “the senate race where Republican Ashley Moody is basically a three and four favorite to to win, this... That's a special election for Marco Rubio's seat” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Generally speaking, Arkansas is way too red of a state to imagine it it flipping. This is where fundamentals are doing a lot of work... look, Arkansas 96%” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “It's in the same range as the Kansas race, basically. They're very similar now where they lean Republican. They're most likely gonna go Republican.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “In our forecast, it is now, essentially, we categorize it as lean Republican... with Roger Marshall, the incumbent there having a a 67% chance of winning, so two and three” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Tallarico's narrowly favored... if Tallerico wins 50 out of every... Sorry. 58 out of every a 100 simulations that we run... the average across all of our forecast runs is that Tallerico wins very narrowly” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=geoffrey-skelley