# Ben Shapiro: On election-day 2022, Shapiro predicted Republicans would end up with 53 to 54 Senate seats and thus a Senate majority, with Blake Masters winning Arizona and Adam Laxalt taking Nevada, while expressing doubt about New Hampshire. He also said Brian Kemp would crush Stacey Abrams in Georgia's governor's race and that a red wave would carry Republicans in the House.

**Claimed:** Nov 8, 2022
**Pundit:** Ben Shapiro — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ben-shapiro
**Outlet:** The Ben Shapiro Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-ben-shapiro-show
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pfx.vpixl.com/2jSe3/claritaspod.com/measure/mgln.ai/e/121/traffic.megaphone.fm/BVDWV2986852878.mp3?updated=1763172455

6 checkable claims — 3 race winners, 2 control of congress and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 6 have settled, averaging 36.7 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I'm gonna say that Republicans win 53 to 54 seats here.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **I think the Republicans will end up with at least 52. I think 53 or 54. ... I'm gonna say that Republicans win 53 to 54 seats here.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: scored 20 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess
- **Brian Kemp is gonna win by a thousand points over Stacey Abrams.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **I think laxalt takes the Nevada senate seat.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Join us and celebrate the red wave. Yes. I believe there will be a red wave tonight.**
  - Kind: Control of Congress
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Obviously, that means Blake Masters and Don Baldock in New Hampshire. ... Arizona, I could see carry like dragging Blake Masters over the finish line in Arizona.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **I think the Republicans will end up with at least 52. I think 53 or 54.**
  - Kind: Control of Congress
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100)
- Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100)
- Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0)
- Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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