# Ryan Girdusky: The host handicapped several midterm races: he expects Dan Sullivan to hang on in Alaska's Senate race, Republicans to win again in New Hampshire and Vermont, Abdul El-Sayed to take Michigan's Senate seat, Jon Ossoff to win Georgia comfortably, and Florida to stay solidly red with Ashley Moody and Byron Donalds both winning by high single to double digits. **Claimed:** Sep 30, 2026 **Pundit:** Ryan Girdusky — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ryan-girdusky **Outlet:** The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-clay-travis-and-buck-sexton-show **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/arttrk.com/p/D5CA5/mgln.ai/e/28/pdst.fm/e/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/f89d9034-241d-480e-a101-b252011f76ce/252b9566-9073-49a0-832f-b4d5002e802b/audio.mp3?in_playlist=1776c4cc-50a1-410f-a2de-ae3c00026dfa 7 checkable claims — 5 race winners and 2 race margins — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. > I think Donald's going to win by like 9 or 10 points, 8 or 9 points. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Republicans are likely to win in New Hampshire and Vermont again.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think Moody will probably win by 10 points or more.** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think Donald's going to win by like 9 or 10 points, 8 or 9 points. I don't think it's that competitive.** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: not settled yet - **Republicans are likely to win in New Hampshire and Vermont again.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **No, no, no, no. I think he's going to win the Senate seat.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **and he's going to win in Georgia very likely by a big number** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **And Mary Patola, for all Democrats' hopes, wishes, and dreams, She's been burning money pretty quickly... But I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls it out.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=ryan-girdusky