# Bob Vander Plaats: Vander Plaats forecast a strong Republican night, saying Abbott would rout O'Rourke in Texas, that Kemp and Herschel Walker would both win in Georgia, that Oz would win Pennsylvania's Senate race, and that Kari Lake would win in Arizona.

**Claimed:** Nov 7, 2022
**Pundit:** Bob Vander Plaats — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bob-vander-plaats
**Outlet:** Steve Deace Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/steve-deace-show
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pfx.vpixl.com/4V6da/arttrk.com/p/BLZM1/verifi.podscribe.com/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/285/pscrb.fm/rss/p/prfx.byspotify.com/e/claritaspod.com/measure/traffic.megaphone.fm/BMDC8027570376.mp3?updated=1667850518

5 checkable claims — 5 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> So I think Oz wins, even though we have some of our own issues with Oz. But I think Kerry Lake wins

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **But I think Kerry Lake wins**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **but now we think, think, you know, Herschel Walker's gonna win**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Be take a look at Georgia. We always thought Kemp was gonna win**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **So I think Oz wins, even though we have some of our own issues with Oz.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **people thought Texas, that Beto O'Rourke was gonna give Abbott a run. You don't hear about that race at all. Abbott's gonna just trounce him**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100)
- Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100)
- Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0)
- Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=bob-vander-plaats