# Chuck Todd: In their final pre-election episode, Todd forecast a strong Democratic night: Democrats winning the House almost regardless, Rob Sand becoming Iowa's next governor, Sherrod Brown winning Ohio by three or four points with a likely Democratic sweep of Ohio's two top races, Abbott edging Texas 50-48, Republicans slightly favored in the Kansas governor's race, and Republicans having almost no chance of saving Virginia's 1st and 2nd congressional districts. **Claimed:** Nov 2, 2026 **Pundit:** Chuck Todd — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/chuck-todd **Outlet:** The Chuck ToddCast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-chuck-toddcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/claritaspod.com/measure/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/p57137/mgln.ai/e/808/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/c749d540-b5b7-42b1-a855-b33100f844fa/83f4429a-4ad3-40f1-9baf-b4f6000739af/audio.mp3?in_playlist=8e017e60-9c2d-418d-97bb-b33100f84504 8 checkable claims — 5 race winners, 2 race margins and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. 5 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls. > And Rob Sand is going to be the next governor of Iowa. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “but I think that a Democratic sweep of Ohio, you know, which I think feels more likely than not, at least in those two races” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I mean, they're going to win the House, you know, almost no matter what” - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “And Rob Sand is going to be the next governor of Iowa.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Turnout in Northern Virginia is going to be presidential level. They have almost no chance at saving the first or the second.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “They have almost no chance at saving the first or the second.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I think Sherrod Brown was winning this race anyway. but I think it was going to be super close. I don't think it's going to be that close anymore. When I say close, I think it's a three or four point race rather than a one or two point race.” - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: not settled yet - “50 to 48 feels like if you were to make me say, make a prediction, I'd probably go 50-48 Abbott.” - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: not settled yet - “I wonder, Republicans are slightly favored to win the governor's race.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=chuck-todd