# Erick-Woods Erickson: Thirteen days out, Erickson says he is restraining himself from flatly declaring Trump the winner, arguing a tied race favors Trump given his history of outperforming polls. He also expects Harris to carry Nevada despite her collapsing numbers there, expects Kari Lake to be routed in Arizona's Senate race, and says Harris will not carry Texas, Florida or Kentucky. **Claimed:** Oct 23, 2024 **Pundit:** Erick-Woods Erickson — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/erick-woods-erickson **Outlet:** Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/erick-erickson-newsletter-substack **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://ewerickson.substack.com/p/reality-check 6 checkable claims — 5 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. 5 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 80 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Instead, I find myself having to rein myself in from explicitly saying he has won thirteen days before the election. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Harris has decided to campaign in Texas, Florida, and Kentucky in the last thirteen days. She will not win those three states but might save some Democrats.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Harris has decided to campaign in Texas, Florida, and Kentucky in the last thirteen days. She will not win those three states but might save some Democrats.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Instead, I find myself having to rein myself in from explicitly saying he has won thirteen days before the election.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **In Nevada, a state I believe Harris will win, her polling is collapsing.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Harris has decided to campaign in Texas, Florida, and Kentucky in the last thirteen days. She will not win those three states but might save some Democrats.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Kari Lake will get crushed in Arizona, but the trend for Trump is positive, with momentum in his direction.** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) - Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 100) - Tim Miller: Miller predicted Kamala Harris would hold the blue wall states and Nevada and win a narrow Electoral College victory with 276 electoral votes, while also saying Florida and Texas would stay out of reach for Democrats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5506a84f-61ca-4667-8670-a8fb3229ae2d (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=erick-woods-erickson