# Rich Baris: Baris forecast a Republican wipeout, saying Christine Drazan would win the Oregon governorship with 42-45% of the vote, that Lombardo and Laxalt would both beat Democratic incumbents in Nevada, that Ron Johnson was cruising in Wisconsin, and that Florida and Georgia were safe/likely Republican holds.

**Claimed:** Nov 1, 2022
**Pundit:** Rich Baris — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/rich-baris
**Outlet:** Steve Deace Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/steve-deace-show
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pfx.vpixl.com/4V6da/arttrk.com/p/BLZM1/verifi.podscribe.com/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/285/pscrb.fm/rss/p/prfx.byspotify.com/e/claritaspod.com/measure/traffic.megaphone.fm/BMDC7753232747.mp3?updated=1667328506

7 checkable claims — 6 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 7 have settled, averaging 71.4 out of 100, against 76.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I think Joe Lombardo and, Adam Laxalt are both, poised to win, defeat Democratic incumbents.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **But I think Joe Lombardo and, Adam Laxalt are both, poised to win, defeat Democratic incumbents.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **really, Florida is not competitive. That's probably a safe, that's probably a safe race for Republicans... Ron DeSantis was unbeatable this year.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **And by the way, Georgia too. We're moving that to the likely column. The truth is Kemp was always likely to be reelected**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **But I think Joe Lombardo and, Adam Laxalt are both, poised to win, defeat Democratic incumbents.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **There's an independent candidate there that's taking double digits anywhere from a low of 12 to a high of 17, and that allows her to slip in with 42 to 45% of the vote.**
  - Kind: Race Margins
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 36 for a naive guess
- **Next door for governor, we have Drais in favor to win that seat.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Wisconsin, which everybody thought was going to be close. Mhmm. Ron Johnson looks, you know, like he's sailing away here.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100)
- Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100)
- Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0)
- Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

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