# Steve Deace: Deace laid out a final presidential map of 297-241 for Trump, with the Rust Belt splitting: Pennsylvania going Republican while Michigan stays Democratic, plus Trump wins in Arizona and Nevada. On the Senate he predicted Republicans finish with 54 seats, including McCormick winning Pennsylvania and Moreno unseating Sherrod Brown in Ohio. **Claimed:** Nov 1, 2024 **Pundit:** Steve Deace — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/steve-deace **Outlet:** Steve Deace Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/steve-deace-show **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pfx.vpixl.com/4V6da/arttrk.com/p/BLZM1/verifi.podscribe.com/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/285/pscrb.fm/rss/p/prfx.byspotify.com/e/claritaspod.com/measure/traffic.megaphone.fm/BMDC5785241096.mp3?updated=1730488448 9 checkable claims — 6 race winners, 1 chamber control, 1 race margin and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 9 have settled, averaging 85 out of 100, against 8.6 for a naive guess at the same calls. > And I think the Republicans end up with 54 US senators. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **On the senate side, I actually believe now 52 is the low number that Republicans will end up with.** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **if I'm not mistaken, you also gave him Arizona and Nevada. Is that correct? Yes. I did.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I think McCormick will also win, and and therefore, that'll get Republicans.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I think Bernie Moreno's run a good campaign. And so between his campaign and Trump's coattails there, I think they will take that seat away from Sherrod Brown as well.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **297 to 241, I do believe for the first time since 1988, the, the Rust Belt, Triumvirate will splinter and not all go the same way.** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 85 out of 100, against 57 for a naive guess - **I I think that Pennsylvania will go red.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I tried to take a state that I do think that Trump is trending well in and have it go blue just based off of fortification that exists. And that state is my former home state of Michigan... I think Michigan will hold firm** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **And I think the Republicans end up with 54 US senators.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 80 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess - **you also gave him Arizona and Nevada. Is that correct? Yes. I did.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=steve-deace