# Steve Deace: Deace laid out an aggressive 'red tsunami/red wedding' map, saying Republicans will take the Colorado and Washington Senate seats and the Colorado governorship, that Kari Lake wins in Arizona, that DeSantis wins Florida, that Grassley survives in Iowa, and that Schumer will not lose New York. **Claimed:** Nov 2, 2022 **Pundit:** Steve Deace — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/steve-deace **Outlet:** Steve Deace Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/steve-deace-show **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pfx.vpixl.com/4V6da/arttrk.com/p/BLZM1/verifi.podscribe.com/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/285/pscrb.fm/rss/p/prfx.byspotify.com/e/claritaspod.com/measure/traffic.megaphone.fm/BMDC6698996194.mp3?updated=1667413674 6 checkable claims — 6 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 6 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 83.3 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I do not know the name of the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Colorado. And I'm going to explain to you why I'm going to predict he is going to win next week *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Only difference now for me in real clear politics is Colorado and and Washington senate seats.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **You guys make Grassley? No. Oh. The most... No. Kim Reynolds is gonna carry a sorry carcass over the finish line.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I am more convinced Kary Lake is bringing a woodshed ... imagine he's got... He's he has squeezed between Kari Lake and Ron DeSantis on a daily basis.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **The most shocking result would be Chuck Schumer losing... that to me would be the absolutely shocking result that I would not predict, I do not believe will happen.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **On November 8, the polls in Florida will close at 8PM. At 08:02PM, Ron DeSantis will be declared the winner. Bye. Yeah. ... Bye.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I do not know the name of the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Colorado. And I'm going to explain to you why I'm going to predict he is going to win next week** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=steve-deace