# Benjamin Solak: Solak predicts the 2022 draft will see more running backs than quarterbacks taken in the first round — possibly three backs to two passers — that Carson Strong will be drafted ahead of Malik Willis, that Kayvon Thibodeaux won't be the first defensive lineman off the board, that eight defensive players will be selected in the top 10, and that Spencer Rattler will end up as the clear top prospect in the class.

**Claimed:** Aug 2, 2026
**Pundit:** Benjamin Solak — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/benjamin-solak
**Outlet:** The Draft Network — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-draft-network
**How it reached us:** published in writing
**Original:** https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/2022-nfl-draft-predictions

3 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks and 1 prospect vs prospect call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 0.1 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I think it's possible we see only two passers up against three backs come April.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Carson Strong to be drafted ahead of Malik Willis**
  - Kind: Prospect vs Prospect Calls · About: Carson Strong
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Spencer Rattler to be picked “clear top spot in the draft class overall; top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Spencer Rattler
  - Verdict: scored 0.23 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Kayvon Thibodeaux to be picked “not the first defensive lineman drafted”**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kayvon Thibodeaux
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## Who this take is about

- Carson Strong — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/carson-strong
- Spencer Rattler — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/spencer-rattler
- Kayvon Thibodeaux — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kayvon-thibodeaux

## What others said about the same people

- Patricia Traina on Kayvon Thibodeaux: Traina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8bb1a183-b45b-44db-8a61-23bdd2238a6b (scored 100)
- Ross Jackson on Spencer Rattler: Ross Jackson gives their final preseason 53-man roster projection for the New Orleans Saints, naming who makes the initial roster at every position group, who starts on injured reserve or the practice squad, and who the five starting offensive linemen and kicker will be. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b43691e9-1673-4236-ba12-7d60ad3b95f5 (scored 100)
- Ross Jackson on Spencer Rattler: Ross Jackson projects the New Orleans Saints' offensive 53-man roster: three quarterbacks with Tyler Shough starting and Spencer Rattler as the backup, four running backs including Alvin Kamara, six wide receivers with Jalen Polk making it, three tight ends, ten offensive linemen with a set starting five, and Charlie Smith at kicker. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5f4d7215-b47b-478d-8a8e-3199f34273ef (scored 100)
- Jack McKessy on Kayvon Thibodeaux: McKessy's way-too-early 2022 NFL awards predictions: Mahomes for MVP, Jonathan Taylor for OPOY, Aaron Donald (or Micah Parsons if Donald retires) for DPOY, Kenny Pickett for OROY, Kayvon Thibodeaux for DROY, Michael Thomas for Comeback Player, and Mike Tomlin for Coach of the Year. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4cc35e2e-94fb-43d2-99ca-955810e42191 (scored 0)
- Patricia Traina on Kayvon Thibodeaux: Traina expects the Giants not to re-sign Kayvon Thibodeaux, predicting Thibodeaux leaves in free agency and lands a top-dollar deal elsewhere. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cc96f5aa-d292-4615-a33a-7a1b0922cb0f (not settled)
- Jordan Dajani on Kayvon Thibodeaux: Dajani identifies 25 players they believe could be dealt before the 2026 NFL trade deadline, sorting them into tiers of impact starters, discount playmakers and sneaky rentals. No destination clubs are named for any of them. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5ae56bb8-cf2b-4715-a20e-9d5a76fa5c5c (not settled)

## More mock draft picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Chris Simms on Malachi Corley: Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c0fd4647-2de8-4a5f-bac2-950fed303ee9 (scored 11.46)
- Todd McShay on Keelon Russell: While breaking down LSU's offense, McShay called receiver Jackson Harris a top-50 NFL draft prospect, and later said LSU's Sam Levitt and Alabama's Keelan Russell are potential top-10 picks in a future draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/15d40546-2ab9-4ab8-b5bd-ed0ef7f26ae5 (scored 0)
- Philip Hughes on Kyle Kennard: Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/605a686a-b5f1-4611-82b4-961abf8de93e (scored 33.86)
- Blaine Grisak on Brian Thomas Jr.: Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/627bcf5d-9f1d-4a34-a1b7-53b8f0aebc40 (scored 84.09)
- Charlie Campbell on Xavier Williams: Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2dd4bf46-e5eb-4dff-8500-95d9fdbd2986 (scored 0)
- Walt on Fernando Mendoza: In a running series of coach/GM hiring and firing grades, Walt projects Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 overall pick of the Raiders in the 2026 draft and has LSU's Garrett Nussmeier going No. 2 overall in their 2026 mock draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/29bb2d31-fbe3-40db-b378-be5ba5d990b0 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

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