# Lakshya Jain: Walking through Split Ticket's model state by state, Jain said Trump narrowly takes North Carolina by about a point, while Harris holds Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, with Michigan her safest at roughly a point and a half to two points.

**Claimed:** Oct 30, 2024
**Pundit:** Lakshya Jain — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lakshya-jain
**Outlet:** The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-bulwark-podcast-feed-title-the-bulwark-daily
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://arttrk.com/p/ABMA5/clrtpod.com/m/pscrb.fm/rss/p/prfx.byspotify.com/e/dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/audioboom.com/posts/8599078.mp3?modified=1735448603&sid=5114286&source=rss

4 checkable claims — 2 race margins and 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 26 out of 100, against 27.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> Right now, we think Donald Trump wins it by about a point.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Democrats are probably gonna have the hardest time keeping Wisconsin. Now we think they keep it by about twenty twenty margins, but it's very close.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **And so right now, we think Donald Trump wins it by about a point, but it's very possible that that actually ends up wrong on election day**
  - Kind: Race Margins
  - Verdict: scored 77.9 out of 100, against 81.4 for a naive guess
- **with the Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, we have Harris narrowly winning**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Michigan is leans democratic... And so we think she ends up winning the state by about a point and a half, two points or so.**
  - Kind: Race Margins
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## More race margins

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 87.9)
- Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100)
- Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 85)
- David Frum: Frum predicted Trump would take about 47 percent of the national vote and again be rejected by a majority, and that Arizona would deliver a bad surprise for Democrats with voters backing Trump while rejecting Kari Lake's Senate bid. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d801b47f-11b1-4078-a15e-6a8670c71670 (scored 72)
- Tim Miller: Miller predicted Kamala Harris would hold the blue wall states and Nevada and win a narrow Electoral College victory with 276 electoral votes, while also saying Florida and Texas would stay out of reach for Democrats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5506a84f-61ca-4667-8670-a8fb3229ae2d (scored 50)
- Robby Soave: Soave forecast the narrowest possible Electoral College outcome, 270-268 for Kamala Harris, with Harris holding the three blue wall states including Pennsylvania while Trump flips Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/51b2250d-7167-4f78-987c-b410831699d8 (scored 56)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=lakshya-jain