# Nathaniel Rakich: He predicted Democrats would gain new House seats in Louisiana and Alabama from redistricting, that Republicans would win the two competitive Arizona House seats and the Texas Senate race, that Tester would lose Montana as Trump carries it big, and that Democrats were substantial underdogs for Senate control. **Claimed:** Oct 17, 2024 **Pundit:** Nathaniel Rakich — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nathaniel-rakich **Outlet:** FiveThirtyEight Politics (podcast archive) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/fivethirtyeight-politics-podcast-archive **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/traffic.megaphone.fm/ESP8090948510.mp3?updated=1729188036 8 checkable claims — 7 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. 5 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I think it is just his luck has run out because polarization is just so strong and Trump is obviously going to win Montana by a very healthy margin. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **it will still, I think, be hard for Peltola to swim against the tide in a place where Trump is going to win as well** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I think Tester being down on the polls is basically the reason why Democrats are fairly substantial underdogs in the senate.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Montana is significantly redder than Ohio is, and that looks like it's probably gonna be Tester's undoing this year ... I think it is just his luck has run out** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Trump is obviously going to win Montana by a very healthy margin** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Is this the year? Unlikely.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I do think you are gonna see adding one Democratic house seat in both Louisiana and Alabama ... Democrats score two basically automatic pickups in the house right then and there** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: too vague to check - **I do think you are gonna see adding one Democratic house seat in both Louisiana and Alabama ... Democrats score two basically automatic pickups in the house right then and there** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: too vague to check - **both of those races are lean Republican according to our forecast ... So if I had to choose, they would go Republican.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: too vague to check ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=nathaniel-rakich